Registered: Mar 2003
01-09-04 06:30 AM
Now, I've done a cursory inspection into EWT and personally found it wanting. I think maybe his basic theory on creating a basic structure of price movement that incorporates the market participants psychology is sound, but only in the most basic sense and certainly not realistically tradeable (bull or bear market) and useful only as a framework.
Take two Ellioticians and the same chart, and you can get two radically different wave counts. Take two technicians, give them the mathematical formula for 10 EMA, the same chart, and guess what? You get the same 10EMA no matter who does the calculation. Now one's opinion on what the 10EMA means may differ, but the 10EMA itself will be the same regardless. It does not change based on any of those two or three or fifty technicians' opinions or natural biases. The same can't be said for EWT.
I mean, most of the bears on this board and other trading boards I peruse almost always use some form of EWT in order to fit their understanding of fundamental information and BELIEF. Their marked preconceptions of the market form their wave counts instead of the market providing the information to them free of any bias. Geez, if you're just going to trade off of opinion, why even cloak it in the pseudo-TA, mysticism that is EWT? Its just a self-reinforcing belief system where you disregard conflicting information and filter only that which agrees with your belieft system and wave counts.
Yes, people can interpret TA indicators and provide their own bias to it, but the 10EMA is still a 10EMA is still a 10EMA. Just like a CCI is still a CCI on the same chart to the different people. How they choose to use the information (reversal, trend follow, etc) may be different, but the market provides the same information to everyone. The value for those #s never change for a different person given the same information and formulae.
Other small gripes is that he centered his work almost exclusively on the Dow and never hinted that it might apply to futures. Not to mention, he was also a mystic who believed in numerology.
I just get the feeling that any EWT mystic who uses EWT now and can't get it right, won't be able to get it right either when bull market finally ends (one month, one year, or five years down the road) and we're then in a bear market. Bull markets are where the easy money is made. If you can't make it now, you certainly won't be able to make it in the more turbulent and dangerous bear waters.