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fxmgr247

Registered: Jun 2012
Posts: 12

10-27-12 06:26 PM

Hi Guys,

Any thoughts on how much of a bounce (if any), crude oil would get from Hurricane Sandy. So far, Sandy is forecast to hit the Northeast, not the Gulf where most oil refineries are, but I assume oil prices will still rise a bit.

What are your thoughts?

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ogarbitrage

Registered: Mar 2008
Posts: 785

10-29-12 08:58 PM

Largely a non event for WTI, might get a subdued bounce in front month NY RB and HO but nothing sustainable. The Gulf is a quick voyage for any physical shortages and pipeline infrastructure in the area should be unaffected.

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fxmgr247

Registered: Jun 2012
Posts: 12

10-30-12 01:41 AM

thanks ogarbitrage

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bone
ET Sponsor

Registered: Apr 2002
Posts: 4329

11-01-12 12:23 AM

A longer term decision to slash East Coast Refinery capacity has preceded the Sandy:

http://www.nj.com/business/index.ss...lose_exper.html

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/256f583c-...l#axzz2AvDSE3jI

http://www.eia.gov/analysis/petrole.../neprodmkts.pdf

Looking at the December and January Crack Spreads tells me Sandy isn't much of an event.

It's all about the Gulf Coast.

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fxmgr247

Registered: Jun 2012
Posts: 12

11-01-12 12:22 PM

Thanks bone,

I didn't think Sandy would cause too much of a bounce. Just wanted a second opinion from more experienced minds

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bone
ET Sponsor

Registered: Apr 2002
Posts: 4329

11-01-12 03:43 PM

We are awash in hydrocarbons. The US is the Saudi Arabia of Natural Gas. The US is about to overtake Saudi Arabia as the top worldwide producer of crude oil - and that is a very recent development due to new fracking and drilling technology.

The refining capacity is the key. And places like the West Coast and the NorthEast have hurt themselves by making it very difficult for refiners to do business there.

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