Registered: Dec 2006
Posts: 3777

Hello,

Is there some knowledgeable energy traders to explain why for Gasoline April is higher than the end of spring and the summer months? Is this situation supposed to continue until expiration?

Thanks

Registered: Mar 2008
Posts: 782

Seems to be typical of the NY curve. Eurobob seems to have a 1 month lag.



My only assumption is that refineries change their outputs during the Mar/Apr timeframe to yield less HO and more RBOB as winter wanes and demand comes back from the consumer. Not much RBOB demand during the Nov-Mar months.

Registered: Dec 2006
Posts: 3777

Yes, and also the "jumps" between mar/apr and sep/oct due to the change in the characteristics of the Gasoline makes it harder to visualize the curve.

The thing is I don't understand why the highest month is so ahead of the driving season. I know price usually anticipates higher demand, but it seems too early.On Ethanol the highest month is more like June. It is a recent development on Gasoline. Back in the day I think summer months were higher than April( I have to check again ).

Registered: Mar 2008
Posts: 782

Maybe you can infer something from this that I couldn't:

RB demand:


RB supply:


Sources

Registered: Dec 2006
Posts: 3777

It seems I was wrong. Here are annual Apr/jul spreads from 2000. It is quite usual indead for April to settle higher than summer months. It's just that this year the spread is at record high for this time of the year( purple ). Last year the spread exploded just before the delivery period( red ):

Registered: Mar 2008
Posts: 782

Nice graph. What software is that?

Advantage Futures

Futures Brokerage & Clearing

AMP Global Clearing

Futures and FX Trading

Bright Trading

Professional Equities Trading

CTS

Futures Trading Software

DaytradingBias.com

Professional Trading Analytics

ECHOtrade

Professional Trading Firm

eSignal

Trading Software Provider

FXCM

Forex Trading Services

Global Futures

Futures, Options & FX Trading

Interactive Brokers

Pro Gateway to World Markets

JC Trading Group

Direct Access Trading

MB Trading

Direct Access Trading

MultiCharts

Trading Software Provider

NinjaTrader

Trading Software Provider

OANDA

Currency Trading

optionshouse

Option Trading & Education

Rithmic

Futures Trade Execution Platform

SpeedTrader

Direct Access Trading

SpreadProfessor

Spread Trading Instruction

thinkorswim by TD Ameritrade

Direct Access Trading

TradersStudio

System Building & Backtesting

Trading Technologies

Trading Software Provider

Trend Following

Trading Systems Provider