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RangeTrader
 

Registered: Mar 2012
Posts: 705

 

08-14-12 10:04 PM

I have and interesting observation and was curious if you would care to comment.

I have been calculating out probabilities a lot lately and have noticed something... When there is a high probability of a certain event happening... Eg, like when we touched new highs today. I calculated out the probability of a reversal dip toward this weekend being around 90% from those new highs. That created a certainty that professionals would analyze the probability and pare back positions through today in fear of the odds probability and shorting in anticipation of it.

The only sure certainty is peoples reactions to the probability. This is why I always like trading off highs/lows at key levels. There is always a certainty of people buying/selling because of the high probability of the market pulling back from those prices.

In essence... A uncertain probability creates a new event of certainty!!!

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davroz
 

Registered: Apr 2012
Posts: 26

 

08-14-12 10:37 PM


Quote from RangeTrader:

I have and interesting observation and was curious if you would care to comment.

I have been calculating out probabilities a lot lately and have noticed something... When there is a high probability of a certain event happening... Eg, like when we touched new highs today. I calculated out the probability of a reversal dip toward this weekend being around 90% from those new highs. That created a certainty that professionals would analyze the probability and pare back positions through today in fear of the odds probability and shorting in anticipation of it.

The only sure certainty is peoples reactions to the probability. This is why I always like trading off highs/lows at key levels. There is always a certainty of people buying/selling because of the high probability of the market pulling back from those prices.

In essence... A uncertain probability creates a new event of certainty!!!



Rubbish!!!

Most people are too irrational to act rationally when confronted by uncertainty. Most just panic in any direction.

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RangeTrader
 

Registered: Mar 2012
Posts: 705

 

08-14-12 10:46 PM

Uncertain uncertainty creates certain certainty!!!


Wall street went on a professional gambler hiring spree a few years back. A lot of pro traders came from backgrounds of card games and blackjack stables. Some pro's even use to run card counting rings back in the day until they got booted out of the casino's so they went into trading.

If you don't think the big money that moves this market can't handle their odds calculations you are delusional!

Also, it doesn't take many hands influencing the market to decide the pattern... Hell, you could probably set all the tops and the bottoms precisely this week with a mere ten million the market is so thin... Eg, you could influence them within like three points with icebergs and decide the exact top and bottom prints.


If some egotistical hedge fund manager says the market is going to print an exact topping number the next day and the market hits the number and falls... He isn't a magician. He roughly had the market momentum calculated out and sold assets there. When the big sales show up on the volume stupid traders see it and they all get freaked out for a while.

With a mere million you can run the daytrading patterns in some small semi-active dollar stocks provided nobody else already has a claim to them like knight capital... I know that for a fact.

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jack hershey
 

Registered: Feb 2003
Posts: 7373

 

08-15-12 01:31 AM

correcto mundo.

BUT....lol

stats lag as you know.

fortunately there is never a huge rush.

So you are good to go.

what a plesure to see your posting. Read Larry Harris thoroughly.

Look at page 199 in the table of trading/investing types.

You have grasp the counerintuitiveness of markets re extracting capital.

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jack hershey
 

Registered: Feb 2003
Posts: 7373

 

08-15-12 01:34 AM


Quote from davroz:

Rubbish!!!

Most people are too irrational to act rationally when confronted by uncertainty. Most just panic in any direction.



Actually no.

Do you breakfast regularly at the Links Club???? East side of Central Park uptown.

I bet not.

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jack hershey
 

Registered: Feb 2003
Posts: 7373

 

08-15-12 01:38 AM


Quote from RangeTrader:

Uncertain uncertainty creates certain certainty!!!


Wall street went on a professional gambler hiring spree a few years back. A lot of pro traders came from backgrounds of card games and blackjack stables. Some pro's even use to run card counting rings back in the day until they got booted out of the casino's so they went into trading.

If you don't think the big money that moves this market can't handle their odds calculations you are delusional!

Also, it doesn't take many hands influencing the market to decide the pattern... Hell, you could probably set all the tops and the bottoms precisely this week with a mere ten million the market is so thin... Eg, you could influence them within like three points with icebergs and decide the exact top and bottom prints.


If some egotistical hedge fund manager says the market is going to print an exact topping number the next day and the market hits the number and falls... He isn't a magician. He roughly had the market momentum calculated out and sold assets there. When the big sales show up on the volume stupid traders see it and they all get freaked out for a while.

With a mere million you can run the daytrading patterns in some small semi-active dollar stocks provided nobody else already has a claim to them like knight capital... I know that for a fact.




icebergs....i like that

i do remember those supervizor hawks at 21 tables. I used to count the cricket's calling for dealer changes. they got really mad.

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