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 Forums ›› Site Support ›› Feedback ›› We need a statistics forum...

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 RangeTrader   Registered: Mar 2012 Posts: 705 08-13-12 09:52 PM Does anyone know any good books or forums on odds and statistics? Instead of just having a feel for statistics and roughly calculating them out I want the exact numbers. Not satisfied with "If we have an engulfing reversal off of low prices, the odds are we will go up for month after month after month after month." Here's my laymans calculation of statistics of the monthly chart... In this bull market... If we have price pullback of significance (200 points +) Once we have an engulfing reversal the odds of price trend reversing the next month is 0%. The odds of price continuing upward for five months is 3/4, but the odds of price continuing upward for five months from a pullback of significance is 3/3. However, odds are actually reducing at this point because of the reduction in long term momentum. Ok, here's another interesting thing when it comes to the statistics of this market... What are the odds of a reversal? Over 41 months in this market we have had... Six full two month engulfing reversals. The odds of a reversal month are 14.63%. However, those are just based upon any random month in this selection. The actual odds of a reversal increases in a curve as the market moves away from the reversal month. Ok, lets solve this... Minimum time between downside full reversals in this market... Seven months. Maximum time of 14 months. Odds of two month reversal occurring needs to be curved based upon the reversal month odds vs the odds of the market reversing in any given random month to solve for a particular month in question... Gah... Can't solve this one... Anyone help? statisticallysignificantmonthly.png This has been downloaded 78 time(s). Edit/Delete • Quote • Complain
 clearinghouse   Registered: Aug 2010 Posts: 572 08-13-12 09:53 PM I wouldn't mind such a forum. Just voicing support. Edit/Delete • Quote • Complain
 abattia   Registered: Dec 2008 Posts: 983 08-13-12 10:02 PM Quote from RangeTrader: ... We need a statistics forum... What about the "Strategy (System) Design" forum? Edit/Delete • Quote • Complain
 optionbull   Registered: Apr 2012 Posts: 241 08-13-12 10:04 PM Quote from RangeTrader: Does anyone know any good books or forums on odds and statistics? Instead of just having a feel for statistics and roughly calculating them out I want the exact numbers. Not satisfied with "If we have an engulfing reversal off of low prices, the odds are we will go up for month after month after month after month." Here's my laymans calculation of statistics of the monthly chart... In this bull market... If we have price pullback of significance (200 points +) Once we have an engulfing reversal the odds of price trend reversing the next month is 0%. The odds of price continuing upward for five months is 3/4, but the odds of price continuing upward for five months from a pullback of significance is 3/3. would like this as well ... However, odds are actually reducing at this point because of the reduction in long term momentum. Ok, here's another interesting thing when it comes to the statistics of this market... What are the odds of a reversal? Over 41 months in this market we have had... Six full two month engulfing reversals. The odds of a reversal month are 14.63%. However, those are just based upon any random month in this selection. The actual odds of a reversal increases in a curve as the market moves away from the reversal month. Ok, lets solve this... Minimum time between downside full reversals in this market... Seven months. Maximum time of 14 months. Odds of two month reversal occurring needs to be curved based upon the reversal month odds vs the odds of the market reversing in any given random month to solve for a particular month in question... Gah... Can't solve this one... Anyone help? Edit/Delete • Quote • Complain
 Eight   Registered: Mar 2009 Posts: 3355 08-14-12 12:28 AM I probably wouldn't understand a word of it but a Statistics forum seems in order.. Edit/Delete • Quote • Complain
 Don Bright Bright Trading, LLC Registered: Oct 2001 Posts: 11698 08-15-12 08:38 PM I use this from time to time. http://wizardofodds.com/ Don __________________ Don Bright (not an alias) Bright Trading, LLC http://www.stocktrading.com Edit/Delete • Quote • Complain
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