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Old Aug 11th, 2012, 04:28 AM   #1
cactiman
 
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 1,047
Anyone buying GLD Calls and/or selling Bull Put Spreads in preparation for another Autumn Rally?
GLD has had a nice consolidation since May, between 150-160.
I've also read Open Interest in the Futures Market was at an extremely low level in July - normally a contrarian indicator.
On the attached chart I've marked the 2009, 2010, & 2011 Summer Lows, right before their Autumn Rallies began.
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File Type: png gld08102012.png (10.1 KB, 181 views)
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Old Aug 11th, 2012, 02:00 PM   #2
cdcaveman
 
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Florida
Posts: 4,014
i'd think it was all about if the money is gonna keep getting printed.. which if you ask me i think its gonna be hard to knock obama out of office.. so the printing press will continue.. if you ask me it looks like a consolidating asymmetrical triangle.. you could look for volume confirmation on a break out.. or use a breakout strategy with options..
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Old Aug 11th, 2012, 02:50 PM   #3
cactiman
 
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 1,047
Quote:
Quote from cdcaveman:

i'd think it was all about if the money is gonna keep getting printed.. which if you ask me i think its gonna be hard to knock obama out of office.. so the printing press will continue.. if you ask me it looks like a consolidating asymmetrical triangle.. you could look for volume confirmation on a break out.. or use a breakout strategy with options..
Good points.
I sold a few Jan GLD 150/149 Bull Put Spreads back in June, figuring the 150 level would hold. So far, so good.
I don't buy Single Options much any more, but am considering some GLD January Calls if GLD breaks out above 160.
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Old Aug 11th, 2012, 02:55 PM   #4
cdcaveman
 
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Florida
Posts: 4,014
Back spread around a breakout resistance
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Old Aug 13th, 2012, 11:09 AM   #5
cactiman
 
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 1,047
Had another look at the attached GLD chart, and for the last 3 years there's not only been Autumn rallies into December, but also Winter rallies into March.
Based on those seasonal patterns, plus the dollar's current high level and the good chance of more money printing coming soon, I decided not to wait for a breakout above 160.
Started a long single option position today with a GLD March 175 Call.
Now we'll "wait and see" about that Breakout, for some confirmation.
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Old Aug 14th, 2012, 11:30 AM   #6
Cereal
 
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 67
But wasn't last December when GLD hit its low in the last 12 months?
Just reminding.
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