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billyjoerob
 

Registered: Jul 2009
Posts: 688

 

08-06-12 06:42 PM

Inflation will return at some point. Maybe not next month or next year, but at some point. So what to buy for long term ownership? I'm not saying these should be bought now, but what assets you would buy with an expectation of higher inflation in the next few years.

First, please don't mention gold or commodities. There have been good arguments made gold is essentially a zero-coupon perpetual bond. In any case, I'm not sure whether commodities and gold or certain currencies are good in an inflationary world or not. My guess is as good as yours.

Some other ideas, please contribute your own:

a) residential housing. Right now there is a glut, but that won't last forever. Housing both generates income and is a long term asset (ie land). You at least want to own your own ie lock in this year's rent.

b) companies with pricing power. This includes any sort of brand name, for instance consumer packaged goods companies, especially of necessities.

c) royalty collectors. WYN for instance collects royalties from motels.

d) distributors. Most distributors are essentially short term lenders. They finance inventory for retailers and manufacturers. They shouldn't be hurt and might be helped by inflation.

e) spread skimmers. Schwab and trust companies like Mellon Bank (BK) have large pools of short term cash on which they earn a spread, at least when interest rates are higher. Not now, of course. Brokers in general don't seem likely to be hurt by inflation.

f) railroads? the rolling stock is depreciating, but the tracks themselves are irreplaceable. Goes both ways.

g) land. If you can afford not to earn income.

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nazzdack
 

Registered: Jul 2004
Posts: 8405

 

08-06-12 07:43 PM


Quote from billyjoerob:
----Inflation will return....
----what to buy....
----expectation....
----good arguments....
----My guess....
----other ideas....
----please contribute....


There may be some "free money" to be made with trading TIPS bonds versus traditional bonds. We'll see.

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billyjoerob
 

Registered: Jul 2009
Posts: 688

 

08-06-12 07:48 PM

Shorting zero coupon bonds too. Forgot the most obvious trade.

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murray t turtle
 

Registered: Dec 2001
Posts: 6268

 

08-06-12 09:35 PM


Quote from billyjoerob:

Inflation ...So what to buy for long term ownership? I'm not saying these should be bought now, but what assets you would buy with an expectation of higher inflation in the next few years.

First, please don't mention gold or commodities. There have been good arguments made gold is essentially a zero-coupon perpetual bond. My guess is as good as yours.

Some other ideas, please contribute your own:

a) residential housing. Right now there is a glut, but that won't last forever. Housing both generates income and is a long term asset (ie land). You at least want to own your own ie lock in this year's rent.

b) companies with pricing power. This includes any sort of brand name, for instance consumer packaged goods companies, especially of necessities.

c) royalty collectors. WYN for instance collects royalties from motels.


g) land. If you can afford not to earn income.


===========
BillJoe;
your guess is probably better than mine on [c] royalty collectors Also''IF inflation returns''...surely you jest;
or else you grow you own food & own your own oil well/refinery...LOL

Gold , copper, silver,still looks good;
if one has made some money investing/trading. Buy & hold on gold, well 10%-15% is usually good advice.Not a prediction.

I also like a certain amount of Federal reserve notes[ ]
even though as Larry Bates[bank seller/gold silver dealer ]says- that loanership.

Gold ,silver, land[paid for]-thats ownership, not loanership

Even though Mr JPM /J Dimon called a'' bottom'' in RE/election year;
RE[real estate ] appraisers talking about inventory/iceberg inventory.......JPM should be fined for a conflict of interest;
bear markets/ buyers markets are full of bottoms.JPM should be ashamed of themselves for that self serving election year propaganda.

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sprstpd
 

Registered: Apr 2003
Posts: 2508

 

08-06-12 09:37 PM

Inflation never left.

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billyjoerob
 

Registered: Jul 2009
Posts: 688

 

08-06-12 09:51 PM

Farmland is another good one.

I'm just not convinced gold is a good inflation hedge. Gold generates no income, so why would I own gold if I could own a money market fund paying a nice return? Hard to believe gold will appreciate compared with income-paying assets.

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