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xrod55
 

Registered: May 2012
Posts: 5

 

08-01-12 08:13 PM

Are there any basic ways I can estimate where a bottom will hit and where a top will hit?

Thanks.

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trader198
 

Registered: Mar 2010
Posts: 1217

 

08-02-12 10:18 PM

if a bounced off a low of X price, it is a bottom
if b dropped off a high of y price, it is a top
...........................................
or just think those so far lows or highs as bottoms and tops.

for an intrady, so far the high/low can be thought as top and bottom.

if you bottom fishing, wait it boounces off low, buy

if you top short seller, wait it peaks off high, sell

easily said, but hard to pindown, since the market is fast.

like today, qqq, it hit 63.91, then bounced to 64+, I bought some calls, thought it is a bottom, then I saw 65+, late 64.8, I think that is a top, sold my calls, bought some puts, when it retarced back to morning low, I sold my puts, thought it is a support, it will bounce.

hard to pindown, I made a mistake in USO, when it hit 33+, I thought it just started, I bought 32.5 calls, late it backed off to 32.8~32.7, just oh my god, I know I bought a top, sold to cut loss.

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FreakofNature
 

Registered: Jun 2011
Posts: 1055

 

08-02-12 11:24 PM


Quote from xrod55:

Are there any basic ways I can estimate where a bottom will hit and where a top will hit?

Thanks.



You can't tell with good accuracy, otherwise 90% would not lose but win, and we know that's not the case.

The market exists to screw the most amount of people as frequently as possible, not the other way around.

It's a losers game unless you are special.

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Zr1Trader
 

Registered: Dec 2010
Posts: 1538

 

08-02-12 11:37 PM

Think like a Banker.

Where is retail going to have their pending stop orders set?

Who does wholesale take the other side of and how does wholesale get filled on their massive orders?

Watch for patterns in price, and volume ,

DB DT trip top, trip bottom, hammers inverted hammers, h and s, inverse h and s, ATR ,exhaustion/climax, pace, time of day, session high/low, oscillatory tendencies/filter/data ect.

Lots of ways to find tops and bottoms, first define your timeframe, then define pattern within that timeframe.

Most importantly there are only probabilities, never certainties. So manage your risk as such.


Today I took a small risk as usual and was rewarded more than expected. I had no idea if this one trade would work until it did, assume every trade will be a loser until proven otherwise.

eurusd 4 hour double top 8-2-12.jpg
This has been downloaded 128 time(s).

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Trend Following
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Registered: Aug 2004
Posts: 1022

 

08-02-12 11:57 PM


Quote from xrod55:

Are there any basic ways I can estimate where a bottom will hit and where a top will hit?

Thanks.



They are clear only in hindsight.

__________________
Trend Following Trading
Covel Books: Trend Commandments, The Little Book of Trading, The Complete TurtleTrader & Trend Following
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hft_boy
 

Registered: Apr 2012
Posts: 177

 

08-03-12 01:14 AM

It's not exactly a sure thing, but look at volume. Like, if you go look at the charts, the low in (December) 2008 was also accompanied by gigantic volume.

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