( I will probide here the Comments relative to Corn, Soybean Complex and Wheat that exist there. )
1) The corn market posted solid gains with the December contract showing the most strength. This was the unwinding of recent spread trades against the September corn contract.
This spread lost half of what it gained yesterday.
2) Weather… remains the theme for corn traders. The current condition and forecast has limited amount of rainfall and extreme heat returning to the area. No relief in sight as NOAA issued an update for the next 30 days. Below normal rainfall and above normal temperatures for the major part of the Midwest.
3) As of yesterday, the month of July is the second warmest and second driest in the since 1894. The record was made in 1936 during the Dust Bowl days.
4) The corn plant is finishing up pollination for a large part of the Midwest. Kernel development is the next concern. Most of the damage has already occurred.
5) The market is trying to find a value for the amount of corn that will be binned. Ending stocks for corn are likely to be lower than the previous year which was a low number compared to recent years.
6) Traders are looking for a 3 to 6% drop in crop condition for corn in next Monday’s report. This would be close to the condition seen in 1988 at this time of the year.
7) The trend continues to point higher on the corn charts. These charts have been in an overbought condition for some time. Technically and fundamentally, the corn price should work higher.
1) For the third straight session the soybean complex made new highs and closed strong to the upside
2) Today there were several new all-time record highs scored in the soybean and soybean meal futures
3) For the third straight session the August and September soybean meal futures traded and closed above the lofty $500 area. August soybean meal made an all-time high today of $552.00.
4) The August soybeans with today’s $17.77 3/4 high made a new high for a spot soybean contract, while the November soybeans had an all-time record high today of $16.91.
5) Today upside was the results of more concerns over the condition of the soybean crop with the continuation of the hot and dry weather in the Midwest
6) Expect another report on Monday of lower condition ratings for the soybean crop.
1) The wheat market took a breather in today’s trading session, but late buying kept it positive and closing near the session highs. Wheat has posted impressive gains in the last month.
2) In the last 34 days, the September Kansas City wheat contract rallied almost $3.00.
3) Wheat is a follower of the corn market but has some friendly fundamentals of its own.
4) Supply news out of the foreign countries adds a bullish factor. India’s monsoon season so far is a disappointment. The north China Plains has experienced less than desirable rain fall which affect their spring wheat crop.
5) Russia tops the list of problem areas. This includes most of the Black Sea Region. Wheat prices in this area push higher gaining $20.00 per metric ton this week. Traders remember a couple of
years ago, the surprise in the low wheat production in Russia.
6) News out of Australia has been quiet which usually means everything is in good shape. Dryness in the Western Australia is attracting some attention. The trade is looking at a 25 million metric tons wheat crop for this country.
7) Wheat charts, like all the grain charts, look impressive. Momentum is to the upside. Trend indicators are pegged at the top of the graph and have been for some time.