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Here2learn

Registered: May 2009
Posts: 36

07-06-12 12:49 AM

What explanations can you off for the sept wheat contract out performing the March today? Is it a fundamental that I am not seeing, or is it simply that the Sept contract was pulled up with corn more than the latter months?

Insights much appreciated, thanks.

Here to learn

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TheBlackHand

Registered: Jun 2012
Posts: 221

07-06-12 05:20 PM

Drought in corn. Wheat is a substitute. Soybeans also affected.

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Here2learn

Registered: May 2009
Posts: 36

07-06-12 06:52 PM

Quote from TheBlackHand:

Drought in corn. Wheat is a substitute. Soybeans also affected.

Right... but why the descrepency in the spread? That's the question.

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oldtime

Registered: Jun 2011
Posts: 7357

07-06-12 07:00 PM

Quote from Here2learn:

Right... but why the descrepency in the spread? That's the question.

because they need the wheat now, when it rains they can buy the cheaper corn later.

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TheBlackHand

Registered: Jun 2012
Posts: 221

07-07-12 08:34 PM

I dont get where the 'today' in your post comes from. Fundamentals arent really responsible for day by day activity if your asking about one particular day - unless shock news hits of course - which would cause a bigger move.

Looking at MRCI, I'd say one of 2 things:

1. The seasonal rally in u12-h13 has occurred 2.5 months early this year

2. The drought...

What do you think?

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oldtime

Registered: Jun 2011
Posts: 7357

07-07-12 08:54 PM

Quote from TheBlackHand:

I dont get where the 'today' in your post comes from. Fundamentals arent really responsible for day by day activity if your asking about one particular day - unless shock news hits of course - which would cause a bigger move.

Looking at MRCI, I'd say one of 2 things:

1. The seasonal rally in u12-h13 has occurred 2.5 months early this year

2. The drought...

What do you think?

there will be no drought, check the historical records, it almost always rains, and I will bet my life fortune on it!

oh wait, I already did that, that is why I had to get a job and am now just a little forex trader.

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