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eurusdzn
Registered: Feb 2012
Posts: 138 |
06-25-12 07:16 PM
This site provides easy access to me from multiple locations
and I read othes threads here too such as ACD and GLOBAL MACRO TRADING.
I am "retail Joe" and I want to jot down some prices, relavant news
etc.. regarding basic assets.
I often look at charts and dont remember what was happenning then
and whether I was bullish or bearish. This is my personal space.
I am older, conservative and dont trade much. I dont want to be effected
negatively about stating trades/reasons etc.. so I am not sure how I
will handle that.
Last Wednesday Jun 20th the fed passed on QE3 and extended twist.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...twist-extension
I was beaish entering and had tiny SDS position... I didnt think they
would twist as rates low and mild deflation ongoing.
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eurusdzn
Registered: Feb 2012
Posts: 138 |
06-26-12 12:28 AM
Jun1 reversal in stocks and euro seemingly front running QE3.
Greek elections pro bailout but want to get better deal. Germany backing off austerity here.
Spain bank bailout is big issue and praised by politicians. No official request,. Audit.
Spain and Italy auctions/yeilds popped 7% ..lower collat accepted by ECB down < 6.5%
Public support for debt in the pas with direct ECB purchases and LTRO's. Again?
Spain bank bailout money to Spanish government. What will be soucre of money. Summit decide?
No mutal debt for Germany, Eurobonds, constitution, referendum. Summit this week.
Sentiment/PA has changed since 20 jun. All Europe has to do is say something/anything but cant.
Bloomberg article, BRICs are week. Bad data,deflation,capital flight,supporting their currencies.
Dont forget about this:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...-to-worsen.html
Misc....jobs, earnings, and fiical cliff ahead. End of quater / summer.
PG and others(forget) have guided down 5% ? due to losses in currency conversions.
SP500 earning maybe mid single digits and ongoing PE compression.
Jul31/Aug1 next fed meeting. Maybe repeat front running expectations.
Merkel today hardened on all stances regarding mutual debt and I forgot about
need for Europe FDIC to reduce capital flight.Seems it isnt going to happen.
Merkel:
There must not be an imbalance between liability and control, she said today.
For instance, we would do a European deposit insurance immediately if it doesnt
lead to common liability but to improved oversight possibilities and standards.
MA5 MA20
TLT + + weaker positive response than expected last few days. Study this. Why.
HYG + + weak PA action after fed words slowing economy
EWG - - weakest of all lately
EWP - - stongest relative to others receiving bailout
EWQ - -
EWI - -
FXE - - big red on fed...and summit coming with low expectations already in there.
FXY - -
FXA - + big red on fed no qe3...commodities.
UUP + +
SPY - - 131.25 good support in the 130-128 level. I must wait till then.
Closed weak SDS position today, probably too soon.
FXI - - a little old support at 32 here. Next is Oct lows 28ish. Looks bad.
USO - - telling the truth.
GLD - - about to cross ma5 in middle of $10 trading range. No QE, deflation.
JJC - - downtrend
SLX steel in a range near OCT 2011 lows.
KOL - - downtrend. WLT,ANR,ACI are supposed to survive. maybe some day.
VXX + - quite low for the risk level I perceive.
Bearish but one headline away from 250+ dow points, as always.
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eurusdzn
Registered: Feb 2012
Posts: 138 |
06-26-12 11:35 PM
HOUSING better this month. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE lower . Waiting for summit Thursday
May 29 09:00 Case-Shiller 20-city Index Mar -3.0% -2.8% -3.5%
Jun 26 09:00 Case-Shiller 20-city Index Apr -1.9% -2.5% -2.5% -2.6%
May 29 10:00 Consumer Confidence May 71.0 69.0 69.2
Jun 26 10:00 Consumer Confidence Jun 62.0 63.0 64.0
May23 New Home Sales Apr 343K 340K 339K 332K
Jun 25 New Home Sales May 369K 350K 350K 343K
ma(5) ma(20)
TLT + - -.39% tight range. price xunder up sloping 20 day ma. 5 cross below 20ma is
the 1st in long time. Twist/ capital preservation/ uncertainty shoud hold up.
Fear/Volatility low.
HYG + + flat
EWG - - +.21% support at 18.75. oversold
EWP - - mid range week today
EWQ - - +.21% support at 18.75
EWI - - France, Germany, Italy holding at Jun1 lows
FXE - - traffic 3 weeks ago at 124.5 , near this support.
FXY - - not watching this now.
FXA - + Found support at 100 and bounced up .6%
UUP + - -.18% Recently rallied 3 days with no QE3 and Europe hardships.Feds
soft economy words as headwinds overwhelmed for 1 BIG day. Sideways since
then along with stocks/gold/commodities and most everything chopping.
SPY/ES - - up .5% to "1315." 1320 then 1345 next level resistances. 1302 support.
FXI - - 32.5 support didnt hold two days ago.
USO - - 81 - 77.5 week range squeezing tight.inventory 10:30 tomrw 2.861M previous.
GLD - - -.75%
JJC - - holding at DEC 2011 lows
SLX - - same as yesterday
KOL - - same ''
VXX + - ma5 is above ma20 on SPY and VXX near 4 month lows(for 3rd time).
Decent bullish PA.
Read Marc Chandler daily.
Creditor nations cannot allow unconditional ESM/EFSF BUYING OF SOV BONDS because that would amount
an improper/illegal transfer. It can be changed at some juncture, but would require a
modification in the current treaty, which is still not fully approved and a delay,
pending the German Constitutional ruling, may see a delay in the start of the ESM past"
the July 9 back-up launch date.
The first reason then not to expect another LTRO is that the funds from the previous operation
have not been fully utilized, the second reason is that to the extent they have been used,
it has strengthened the dangerous link between the sovereign and banks.
Consider Spain. Roughly 2/3 of Spanish government bonds are owned by domestic banks,
pension funds and insurance companies. Their holdings were closer to 50% at the end
of last year.(LTRO).
In Spain, as was the case in Ireland, the weak banks are weighing on the sovereign.
In Italy, for the most part, it is the weakness of the sovereign that is an important
weight on Italian banks.
As of now, no country has formally asked for the EFSF/ESM to purchase their bonds.
ARTICLES BELOW ARGUE FOR QE FROM ECB. Markets may go up big with that.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...s-in-Spain.html
http://seekingalpha.com/article/683...ro?source=yahoo
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eurusdzn
Registered: Feb 2012
Posts: 138 |
06-28-12 04:55 AM
Jun 27 08:30 Durable Orders May ACTUAL 1.1% PRIOR -0.2%
DURABLE GOODS AND HOUSING, DOW +95 AND SPX +12
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/28/b...ds-turn-up.html
Compared with a year earlier, May pending sales of previously owned properties
climbed 15.3 percent
after a 14.7 percent April gain.
Try using stoch(5) and ma(5) and ma(20) for context.
Try Finviz remotely and broker at home to state S/R and/or trendlines
and entries/exits based off
of these using 1hour and day bars.
MA(5) MA(20)
TLT ++ .07 narrow range.
HYG ++ .60
FXE -- -.19 traded down near support at 124.55.
FXA ++ .18 two day rally. stoch5 xover at 27
FXY +- -.39
UUP ++ .31* up with commodities gold and stocks with FXE down.
Everthing traded today like dollar down day.
SPY ++ 1.0% HH and HL recently,some technicals and PA indicate trade yesterday/today. Up 1% with euro down and dollar up.
FXI 1.58
GLD +- .19 up today with dollar up.
USO +- 1.34 inventories down 100k, not as much as expected.Ascending channel from Jun 22.
Lower trendline approx 79.25-79.5 . Upper trendline about 81.
JJC +- .90 commodities traded up today
SLX ++ 1.43
KOL +- 1.29
DRN ++ 1.17 real estate. stream of income good if no inflation. ZIRP is good.
Two day oversold bouce for all these countries etfs
EWG +- .85 stoch5 xover < 15
EWI +- 1.77
EWP +- 1.6
EWQ +- 1.2
Euro summit coming Thursday and Friday Jun28/29
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eurusdzn
Registered: Feb 2012
Posts: 138 |
06-29-12 12:57 AM
8:30 AM, ES down .6% and financials off 2%ish on JPM rumor
NY Times report JPM Whale losses may reach 9 bil. (Jul13 earnings release)
Also,
Barclays (BCS) is down 8.6% as British politicians are talking jail time
for those found guilty of manipulating LIBOR. U.K. Chancellor Osborne tells Parliament that RBS and HSBC (HBC), as well as foreign banks (apparently UBS and C) are also under investigation in regards to Libor. Court documents in an unrelated case say hedge fund Brevan Howard asked RBS to alter Libor and the bank "received this request without objection."
Obamacare held up by Supreme court
QE3 info. Past QE timeline/statements in following link.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2...ay-for-qe2.html
GDP numbers coming out tommorrow. Link below is recent data May31. Q4, 2011 1st=2.2%, 2nd = 1.9%
http://www.tradingnrg.com/u-s-gdp-2...-may-31st-2012/
MA(5) MA(20)
2:30 comeback fro down 175 to down 20 on rumors and headlines from summit 149bil. growth package. European Investment Bank? gets 10bil.
"The Luxembourg-based EIB could use its capital infusion to increase its lending capacity by 60 billion euros and unlock 180 billion euros of additional investment, according to EU estimates. With the extra capacity, the EIB can keep expanding its efforts to finance EU infrastructure projects. In January, the bank said it was on course to gradually return to pre-2008 lending levels, with loans set to decline to 50 billion euros in 2012 from 61 billion euros in 2011."
Sounds like 10 bil for 150 bil loans to build roads.
ma(5)Ma(20)
TLT ++ .24% did not sell off with the huge late day reversal
HYG ++
FXE -- -.15% down 6 of 7 days 123.80. down 100 from 2am-4am
FXA ++
FXY +-
UUP ++ +.13 up. All upside in Europe session.
SPY ++ down about 20 late day reversal down 2. 132.79 cash.
FXI +- old support now resistance. does not look good.
GLD -- -1.16 .gold sown about $25 to $1510 support at 1480-1500
USO +-
CL down .50 with euro overnight. crushed at 9AM with financials?
range 80.50 - 77.50 huge.
JJC +-
SLX ++ steel up 3days. in a range
KOL +-
DRN ++ +3.07% has put in (2) HH and (2) HL very strong today
EWG -- 4 day chop near 6 month lows.creditors weaker than debtors.
EWI +-
EWP ++ spain strongest
EWQ -- week.
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