Registered: Jun 2010
06-26-12 12:51 PM
Registered: Jan 2011
06-18-11 01:02 PM
Here's something I use that you might be interested in experimenting with:
1-You pick a price level where "price will not stay for a long time". This is tricky but not impossible. This is point X. That's where you initiate the spread. You attempt to initiate at a price near "middle" and not pay market unless the bid-ask is very tight and you are nearing the end of the day.
2-If price moves towards 1, you do nothing except you place your offer for the whole spread to exit for a small profit. (This happens often, because neither you or me can predict price accurately 100% of the time, or even 85% or 75% for extended periods of time, no matter what other assholes tell you). With price increasing, normally volatility drops slightly and you have a fair chance of getting filled. (This can happen a few hours to days later, depending on the market and on your greedy offer).
3-If price hits point 2, then you DOUBLE your risk by increasing your position. AT THE MARKET. Here you are in a maximum position of agression. If you can create somehow an earthquake in Japan, you do it!.
4-If prices continue to slide, you find a way to exit some of your position, at a profit or sell some puts to DIMINISH your risk while prices continue to crash. This is in case prices stop crashing and rebound.
5-If after hitting point 2, and you have doubled your risk, prices return slowly to point 1, you seek to exit at least half your position with a 1-2 tic profit and diminish your risk again, till you can exit the rest at small profit if prices continue to increase (and volat drop) or you get a shot again at point 2 to double your position again.
All of the above work much better if you manage to initiate near an extreme in price, and have a bearish outlook.
The beauty of this strategy is that catastrophic risk is always playing for you, and that you can control your exposure at all times. The downside is that time decay works against, and therefore you cannot initiate it at random, but pick your spots.
If you add/reduce puts/calls at key support-resistance levels, you can "scalp your way out" of the time decay effects that are working against you on the left side of the price graph. On the right side of the graph, time works for you and you can afford to be patient.
The strategy works equally well in bull or bear outlooks, but you can experiment with the call-backspread too if you are extremely bullish and forecast an explosive move up.
Study it and practice it for a few months, and notice the nuances in realtime execution (which are many), getting a good price for the whole of it being the main nuisance.
Cheers and don't tell it to anyone. OK?.
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