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aquarian1
 

Registered: Nov 2009
Posts: 554

 

05-01-12 10:33 PM

I would like to discuss Corn futures trading with someone who has been tracking it/trading it for a while. In particular the contract variances that currently exist between May, July Sept and Dec.

They do not seem to be in line, either in direction or levels, far beyond the regular difference one would expect in index or metal futures.

Is the current disparity due to particularities of this season crops?

I am thinking of switching from May to Sept (skipping July), as I believe Gann did. What experiences have you had on the May roll-over?

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stoic
 

Registered: Aug 2007
Posts: 401

 

05-02-12 05:40 AM

I have all the data for CBOT corn going back to 1975.

Also have all the spreads for:

H vs. N
K vs. U
K vs. Z
N vs. Z
U vs. N
U vs. Z
For the same years, and..
Z vs. Z from 1995 forward.

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aquarian1
 

Registered: Nov 2009
Posts: 554

 

05-02-12 02:42 PM

Thank-you Stoic!

I am thinking of just trading a single contract at the moment (I am not well versed in spreads). I keep the data each day in a spreadsheet for the contract I am following.

The purpose of the spreadsheet is to try and estimate the high and low for the upcoming day. So I would have the 3 day average range, the change in midpoints, etc.

When I switch from one contract month to the next there is a jump/drop in the data. It seems May's volume is dropping off and I am trying to decide to switch from May to July or May to Sept.

On page 157 of "How to Make Profits in Commodities"
Gann writes:
"1937 May Final High 140. ...
.. Top was reached in the month of May, the month when most seasonal trend tops are made. You would sell September or December corn at this time when the prices of these options were high.

[he uses the word "options" were we now use the word "contracts"]

It seems he skips July.
There may be a very good reason for this.

I am new to trading corn, so I was thinking of staying with what Gann did. However, when I look at Sept it seems so very different to July.

What are your thoughts?

Thank-you.



Quote from stoic:

I have all the data for CBOT corn going back to 1975.

Also have all the spreads for:

H vs. N
K vs. U
K vs. Z
N vs. Z
U vs. N
U vs. Z
For the same years, and..
Z vs. Z from 1995 forward.

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stoic
 

Registered: Aug 2007
Posts: 401

 

05-02-12 03:01 PM

The attached shows May v Sep.

corn may v sep.pdf
This has been downloaded 76 time(s).

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aquarian1
 

Registered: Nov 2009
Posts: 554

 

05-02-12 03:42 PM

Thank you for the spread chart.

I am not clear on how it answers my question about trading July or Sept. ?

july and sep 2012.png
This has been downloaded 317 time(s).

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emg
 

Registered: Feb 2010
Posts: 5322

 

05-02-12 04:08 PM


Quote from aquarian1:

Thank-you Stoic!

I am thinking of just trading a single contract at the moment (I am not well versed in spreads). I keep the data each day in a spreadsheet for the contract I am following.

The purpose of the spreadsheet is to try and estimate the high and low for the upcoming day. So I would have the 3 day average range, the change in midpoints, etc.

When I switch from one contract month to the next there is a jump/drop in the data. It seems May's volume is dropping off and I am trying to decide to switch from May to July or May to Sept.

On page 157 of "How to Make Profits in Commodities"
Gann writes:
"1937 May Final High 140. ...
.. Top was reached in the month of May, the month when most seasonal trend tops are made. You would sell September or December corn at this time when the prices of these options were high.

[he uses the word "options" were we now use the word "contracts"]

It seems he skips July.
There may be a very good reason for this.

I am new to trading corn, so I was thinking of staying with what Gann did. However, when I look at Sept it seems so very different to July.

What are your thoughts?

Thank-you.

.



is this a joke?

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