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Lights

Registered: Sep 2003
Posts: 1147

04-23-12 04:45 AM

Quote from HurricaneUS:

Now I get it......Ghost of Cutten = Lights

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=241225

Thanks for clearing that up....did you forget that you already started a thread on this subject....

I didn't start this thread. Someone must have been inspired by my original post.

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Ghost of Cutten

Registered: Aug 2009
Posts: 2625

04-23-12 06:05 AM

Quote from HurricaneUS:

Now I get it......Ghost of Cutten = Lights

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=241225

Thanks for clearing that up....did you forget that you already started a thread on this subject....

Er, yeah - a brit and a yank are so easily confused.

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Daal

Registered: Oct 2002
Posts: 8997

04-23-12 07:02 AM

The argument against ultra-selectivity would be a statistical one. If a trader can find 3-5 excellent trades a year its likely he could find several multiples of that in good trades a year

A trader would have to have a very good reason to pass up smaller edges, maybe a time constraint of some kind. Otherwise this would be like playing poker but refusing to steal the blinds with good but not great hands when you know its profitable

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abattia

Registered: Dec 2008
Posts: 983

04-23-12 08:07 AM

Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

... So, the question is - why not just be super selective? Take the best 5-6 trades each year and forget the test. Or at the very least, only take a trade if it has a seriously good chance of being a 'trade of the year' candidate.

Any thoughts? I know the system traders will (of necessity) disagree, but for us discretionary guys, shouldn't we be about 5-10 times more selective and only take the very best setups?

A system traders' viewpoint ...

Quote from dom993:
... The "randomness" of the large winners ... IMO, the tendency of big winners to "prefer" marginal setups comes from the surprise factor ... when the majority is caught on the wrong side ... you never get that if you are taking the most obvious or cleanest setups. But those marginal setups have a lower win%...

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...ion#post3488552

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Ghost of Cutten

Registered: Aug 2009
Posts: 2625

04-23-12 03:19 PM

Quote from Daal:

The argument against ultra-selectivity would be a statistical one. If a trader can find 3-5 excellent trades a year its likely he could find several multiples of that in good trades a year

A trader would have to have a very good reason to pass up smaller edges, maybe a time constraint of some kind. Otherwise this would be like playing poker but refusing to steal the blinds with good but not great hands when you know its profitable

Well there is a definite time constraint in many cases i.e. having to do research. There's also the issue of mental focus. I agree there is a certain point at which passing up a trade is simply missing opportunity, question is where that point is.

Poker is a bit different because you aren't going to screw up on a big hand because you stole the blinds the hand before. Unless you are multi-tabling online, in which case you'd not try stealing the blinds if you had a huge pot on another hand - you'd focus on the big play not the small one.

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Grandluxe

Registered: Aug 2006
Posts: 2453

04-23-12 03:25 PM

So what's your no 1 best idea now Cutten, spoos crashing to 1300/1250? repeat of Euro crisis?

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