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Old Apr 22nd, 2012, 11:45 PM   #7
Lights
 
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 1,191
Quote:
Quote from HurricaneUS:

Now I get it......Ghost of Cutten = Lights

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showth...hreadid=241225

Thanks for clearing that up....did you forget that you already started a thread on this subject....
I didn't start this thread. Someone must have been inspired by my original post.
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Old Apr 23rd, 2012, 01:05 AM   #8
Ghost of Cutten
 
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 2,869
Quote:
Quote from HurricaneUS:

Now I get it......Ghost of Cutten = Lights

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showth...hreadid=241225

Thanks for clearing that up....did you forget that you already started a thread on this subject....
Er, yeah - a brit and a yank are so easily confused.
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Old Apr 23rd, 2012, 02:02 AM   #9
Daal
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Brazil
Posts: 9,192
The argument against ultra-selectivity would be a statistical one. If a trader can find 3-5 excellent trades a year its likely he could find several multiples of that in good trades a year

A trader would have to have a very good reason to pass up smaller edges, maybe a time constraint of some kind. Otherwise this would be like playing poker but refusing to steal the blinds with good but not great hands when you know its profitable
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Old Apr 23rd, 2012, 03:07 AM   #10
abattia
 
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Central African Republic
Posts: 1,099
Quote:
Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

... So, the question is - why not just be super selective? Take the best 5-6 trades each year and forget the test. Or at the very least, only take a trade if it has a seriously good chance of being a 'trade of the year' candidate.

Any thoughts? I know the system traders will (of necessity) disagree, but for us discretionary guys, shouldn't we be about 5-10 times more selective and only take the very best setups?
A system traders' viewpoint ...
Quote:
Quote from dom993:
... The "randomness" of the large winners ... IMO, the tendency of big winners to "prefer" marginal setups comes from the surprise factor ... when the majority is caught on the wrong side ... you never get that if you are taking the most obvious or cleanest setups. But those marginal setups have a lower win%...
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showth...on#post3488552
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Old Apr 23rd, 2012, 10:19 AM   #11
Ghost of Cutten
 
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 2,869
Quote:
Quote from Daal:

The argument against ultra-selectivity would be a statistical one. If a trader can find 3-5 excellent trades a year its likely he could find several multiples of that in good trades a year

A trader would have to have a very good reason to pass up smaller edges, maybe a time constraint of some kind. Otherwise this would be like playing poker but refusing to steal the blinds with good but not great hands when you know its profitable
Well there is a definite time constraint in many cases i.e. having to do research. There's also the issue of mental focus. I agree there is a certain point at which passing up a trade is simply missing opportunity, question is where that point is.

Poker is a bit different because you aren't going to screw up on a big hand because you stole the blinds the hand before. Unless you are multi-tabling online, in which case you'd not try stealing the blinds if you had a huge pot on another hand - you'd focus on the big play not the small one.
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Old Apr 23rd, 2012, 10:25 AM   #12
Grandluxe
 
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Modakeke, Nigeria
Posts: 3,284
So what's your no 1 best idea now Cutten, spoos crashing to 1300/1250? repeat of Euro crisis?
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