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Old Apr 22nd, 2012, 06:52 PM   #7
Lights
 
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 1,184
Quote:
Quote from silk:

I'm fear i couldn't identify the slam dunk trades if i wasn't making at least some smaller trades which allows my mind to feel out the market. Perhaps for people like me, an alternate Holy Grail would be to maximize buying power to the 10 slam dunk trades while minimizing buying power for the more crappy trades. Not sure if I wasn't hitting some buttons, i would be able to just sit back and not trade for 5 weeks and then go all in when i finally saw the golden setup. My mind might be stuck on day time TV or Sports or something if i went that long without trading.
Billy Beane was featured in the film Moneyball who proved he could win big with a team payroll 1/4th of the NY Yankees just making statistically probable player and coaching decisions at opportune times. I work for a stat arb firm and realize I was trading blind for the past 5 years trying to use "the force"
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Old Apr 22nd, 2012, 06:54 PM   #8
ocean5
 
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 934
Quote:
Quote from logic_man:

I think we might end up having to agree to disagree here. I simply don't think the market works in such a way that anyone could identify 10 "fat pitch" opportunities and hit home runs on all 10. Simply trading less doesn't eliminate all uncertainty from trading strategy.

What would help convince me is if you could point to one or two well-known traders who have actually accomplished this.

7 out of 10 I can believe. 10 out of 10, consistently, doesn't seem realistic.
By reading your posts i conclude that you have a lo-o-ong way to go.
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Old Apr 22nd, 2012, 07:02 PM   #9
logic_man
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,489
Quote:
Quote from ocean5:

By reading your posts i conclude that you have a lo-o-ong way to go.
And you are?

Your comment is completely substance-less. Why do you conclude that? Come on, "thrill me with your acumen".

Again, as I said to the original poster, show me someone successful who's talked about his trading strategy as being aligned with what this thread is claiming.
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Old Apr 22nd, 2012, 07:09 PM   #10
logic_man
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,489
Quote:
Quote from Lights:

Billy Beane was featured in the film Moneyball who proved he could win big with a team payroll 1/4th of the NY Yankees just making statistically probable player and coaching decisions at opportune times. I work for a stat arb firm and realize I was trading blind for the past 5 years trying to use "the force"
Even so, Billy Beane didn't strike gold with every prospect he selected using the Moneyball approach.

I don't know why you can't just admit that your original post, while containing some good points, paints an unrealistic picture of what can be done? Failing that, point someone out who's doing this.

The stat that's floated around for years from Steve Cohen is that his best traders are right a little less than 65% of the time. Given that Cohen can definitely afford to wait for "fat pitches", why didn't he say his traders were right all the time by just waiting for the creme-de-la-creme of market setups?
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Old Apr 22nd, 2012, 07:17 PM   #11
ocean5
 
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 934
Quote:
Quote from logic_man:

And you are?

Your comment is completely substance-less. Why do you conclude that? Come on, "thrill me with your acumen".

Again, as I said to the original poster, show me someone successful who's talked about his trading strategy as being aligned with what this thread is claiming.
You are lack of knowledge on how markets work,lack of the knowledge of yourself,you do not understand compounding,otherwise you wouldnt post this BS,and additional BS about Cohen and Billy Beane butter bean bada bing bada pam bada boom
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Old Apr 22nd, 2012, 07:23 PM   #12
logic_man
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,489
Quote:
Quote from ocean5:

You are lack of knowledge on how markets work,lack of the knowledge of yourself,you do not understand compounding,otherwise you wouldnt post this BS,and additional BS about Cohen and Billy Beane butter bean bada bing bada pam bada boom
And here I was thinking that your first comment was substance-less. It's a veritable philosophical treatise compared to this one. Man, you are one pathetic tool.
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