Quote from Lights:
Billy Beane was featured in the film Moneyball who proved he could win big with a team payroll 1/4th of the NY Yankees just making statistically probable player and coaching decisions at opportune times. I work for a stat arb firm and realize I was trading blind for the past 5 years trying to use "the force"
Even so, Billy Beane didn't strike gold with every prospect he selected using the Moneyball approach.
I don't know why you can't just admit that your original post, while containing some good points, paints an unrealistic picture of what can be done? Failing that, point someone out who's doing this.
The stat that's floated around for years from Steve Cohen is that his best traders are right a little less than 65% of the time. Given that Cohen can definitely afford to wait for "fat pitches", why didn't he say his traders were right all the time by just waiting for the creme-de-la-creme of market setups?