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Old Apr 4th, 2012, 01:49 AM   #1
SGlad
 
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Boston
Posts: 44
Let me to present for this venerable forum few samples of how to use SG-analysis to understand market processes.
Take a look on three stocks and wide market index from my point of view.

In a few words SG-analysis is based on multiscale presentations of time-series data that allow to understand price changes in terms of natural channels, simple oscillations and special configurations.

Starting with AAPL (stocks have been chosen somehow)

A "logical" question: is it a time to short it? reasonable answer is: no, it isn't a time to short because of: upside price flow is strong enough and there are no any sign of destabilization;
may be a small cloud at scale 1: the amplitude is slightly increasing but it is local in time;
looks like huge amplitude increase at scale 4 creates a huge potential for downside move; it's possible but not right now;
furthermore if you can control a position closely it is not a bad time to enter UP.
Sentences above is my "lyrics" to express my view. But it is not necessary to make the same conclusion. Analysis is clear, decision is definite but logic is fuzzy

more charts can be found here
http://sganalysis.com/2012/04/03/aap...bux-and-sp500/
and around

thank you for your attention,
Sergei
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Old Apr 4th, 2012, 05:27 PM   #2
SGlad
 
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Boston
Posts: 44
light grude OIL _ Apr04

it is oil, an upside flow at 4th scale is wide but stable, although there are faint signs of destabilization of the flow up to the level 2 (increase in amplitude = AI), but this do not cause a strong fear
and the configuration on the scale 4 is also the AI with great quality that does not indicate a sustainable process;
stabilization of the flow is difficult to imagine but it is possible, well, let's see,
the "diagnosis" for now is a steady growth;

for practical use: price flow means that price is changing inside natural (w/o st.dev. and other artificial things) channel and somehow is filling it
so you may calculate parameters of the changes and get answer for the most important question: "what's going on now?"
for example, for OIL now price are moving from the upper side of the (main) channel at scale 4 to the lower side;
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Old Apr 4th, 2012, 05:42 PM   #3
SGlad
 
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Boston
Posts: 44
(sorry for repeating the post instead of editing it)

it is oil, an upside flow at 4th scale is wide but stable, although there are faint signs of destabilization of the flow up to the level 2 (increase in amplitude = AI), but this do not cause a strong fear
and the configuration on the scale 4 is also the AI with great quality that does not indicate a sustainable process;
stabilization of the flow is difficult to imagine but it is possible, well, let's see,
the "diagnosis" for now is a steady growth;

for practical use: "price flow" means that price is changing inside natural channel and somehow is filling it (natural means: w/o st.dev and other artificial far-fetched methods);
so you may calculate parameters of the changes and get answer for the most important question: "what's going on now?"
for example, for OIL now price are moving from the upper side of the (main) channel at scale 4 to the lower side;
and now you have to answer the only one "simple" () question: is there any flow that you are ready and able (!) to follow for
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Old Apr 4th, 2012, 05:56 PM   #4
SGlad
 
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Boston
Posts: 44
S&P 500: scale 4 shows: 1. abnormally high speed up with acceleration, 2. breakout in the main direction and 3. very narrow channel – everything are the signs of crazy buying market; and there are no clear signs of instability;
the end of this strong upward flow will be after breakout of the configuration at scale 2 and higher;
what will be after that – we will see soon (“soon” in terms of PFT may take a long time but it obviously be and will take days or more probably weeks).

That happened today is still inside the main flow and is not dangerously yet but any rally - a nervous time.
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Old Apr 4th, 2012, 06:03 PM   #5
SGlad
 
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Boston
Posts: 44
S&P 500: scale 4 shows: 1. abnormally high speed up with acceleration, 2. breakout in the main direction and 3. very narrow channel – everything are the signs of crazy buying market; and there are no clear signs of instability;
the end of this strong upward flow will be after breakout of the configuration at scale 2 and higher;
what will be after that – we will see soon (“soon” in terms of PFT may take a long time but it obviously be and will take days or more probably weeks).

What happened today is still inside the main flow and is not dangerously yet but any rally is a very nervous time.
And the only thing that we know for sure: it will be very big and clear announcement about the rally's end. But most participants will ignore it, as usual
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Old Apr 4th, 2012, 06:36 PM   #6
SGlad
 
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Boston
Posts: 44
can't leave it without attention: AIG - my favorite for now

favorite not only because it follow the Theory (it's not unusual for non-perturbed processes) but because it clearly shows the superposition of the oscillations at the different scales: Amplitude Decrease with breakout "forward" at scale 1 combined with strong AI at scale 2 actually together create the stable flow at scale 4. Excellent!

But we have to watch AI at scale 2: there is the Rule: do not ignore AI and do not stay against it. Of course all rules are based on fuzzy logic but decision is clearly definite.
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