Registered: Oct 2002
Posts: 739

Since the market is upwardly biased in the long run, there is no need to try to be a market timer. The only skill you need is being able to identify stocks that will outperform the market. If you have this skill, in the long run you will make money.

Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 44

To be successful in this assumption, you probably need to start investing when you are 10 years old to give yourself the maximum chance for success.

You could find a stock that drops 3% a year when the market drops 5%. Your stock is going down but it is outperforming the market. The market comes back at 3% a year and your stock comes back at 4% a year. Again you outperform but for what benefit.

You need more in your analysis.

Registered: Jul 2002
Posts: 6916

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Quote from mrmarket:

Since the market is upwardly biased in the long run, there is no need to try to be a market timer. The only skill you need is being able to identify stocks that will outperform the market. If you have this skill, in the long run you will make money.

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assuming you never need your money again........

Registered: Oct 2002
Posts: 678

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Quote from mrmarket:

Since the market is upwardly biased in the long run, there is no need to try to be a market timer. The only skill you need is being able to identify stocks that will outperform the market. If you have this skill, in the long run you will make money.

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Registered: Nov 2002
Posts: 1462

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Quote from mrmarket:

Since the market is upwardly biased in the long run, there is no need to try to be a market timer. The only skill you need is being able to identify stocks that will outperform the market. If you have this skill, in the long run you will make money.

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Oh, is that all there is to it? Piece'a cake!

(You're preaching to the wrong choir here, MrM. Even though basic market returns are a virtual lock to outgun all but about maybe 5 people on here, they'd rather not here about it!)

Registered: Sep 2003
Posts: 187

Guess you haven't heard:

Past performance does not guarantee future results

There's been 20 year periods where the market made no new highs.

I wouldn't want to try this approach in light of all the baby boomer retirements coming up. With a negative savings rate and a high liquidation rate, US markets are going to have it tough for the next 20 years.

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