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braincell
 

Registered: Jul 2011
Posts: 533

 

04-23-12 11:01 PM


Quote from lel4866:

yes - all of the above



Thanks for the replies.

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alexvnew
 

Registered: Apr 2012
Posts: 22

 

04-24-12 09:09 AM

Sounds to me like a multidimensional optimization and curve-fitting across many assets and timeframes. No wonder why some of these investment houses went bust.

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lel4866
 

Registered: Jan 2009
Posts: 6

 

04-24-12 12:17 PM

The goal is to fit a real underlying process and not fit random noise. And to detect when the underlying process changes.

"Curve fitting" and "optimization" are terms that have a bad public press but are used every day to find solutions to real problems in a large number of fields. Most people working in this space aren't that stupid. They know the issues.

Do the techniques need improvement? Of course. Are the techniques applied incorrectly by some people? Of course. Does that make the techniques invalid? Does that mean you stop trying to improve them?

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Rationalize
 

Registered: Jan 2010
Posts: 774

 

04-24-12 04:53 PM


Quote from ssrrkk:

I could be wrong but I think he means risk management in longer-term asset allocation strategies. I have a neighbor who does this type of work in NYC. Very dry and slow-paced, but lots of funds are doing this type of work I think.



This is middle office mumbo jumbo & buy side voodoo. Not trading strategy development.

Risk managers use these models to police the front office.

Risk to Trader: "You need to unwind that, because the model says your risk is too concentrated".

The middle office is another career path for failed traders.

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ssrrkk
 

Registered: Jun 2005
Posts: 423

 

04-24-12 05:49 PM


Quote from Rationalize:

This is middle office mumbo jumbo & buy side voodoo. Not trading strategy development.

Risk managers use these models to police the front office.

Risk to Trader: "You need to unwind that, because the model says your risk is too concentrated".

The middle office is another career path for failed traders.



Actually that is sort of what I meant -- not so much for trading (day or swing) but more for balancing risk in a long-term portfolio of assets. My neighbor does not describe himself to be a trader but is a principal in a small financial firm that specializes in asset allocation. My guess is that longer term, there is bound to be more signal as you can model things like interest rates, inflation, GDP, real estate prices, corporate profits, etc etc...

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logic_man
 

Registered: Oct 2010
Posts: 1489

 

04-25-12 09:52 PM


Quote from luckyputanski:

Can we stop blatant PAL ads? According to them, everyone else is doing everything wrong, they're the only ones who know how to create systems. Stating that indicator based system fail by nature is simply not true. Systems from PAL have the same (if not bigger) chance of failing, and no number of posts on ET and their blog can change it.



I did find the authors' claim that certain system types had higher failure rates weak, since he didn't provide any empirical substantiation.

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