Registered: Dec 2006
Posts: 3787

Hello,

Is the curve normal for summer expiries this year? We have Apr > May > Jun > Jul? I thought a typical year was more like Apr < May < Jun > Jul > Aug ...

Registered: Jul 2004
Posts: 8413

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Quote from TraDaToR:
----curve normal....
----summer expiries this year?

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Iran may be messing up the "normal" price relationships. The market could be discounting something else too.

Registered: Nov 2009
Posts: 126

Brent crude oil is in deep backwardation, so it is trumping any seasonal tendencies for gasoline prices. Since last year, gasoline has much tighter correlation with Brent than WTI crude.

Registered: Apr 2002
Posts: 4329

Can you get access to the Platt's daily cash market postings; Bloomberg has them as well - look at the daily Gulf Coast refining metrics. I like the Bloomberg Crude Netbacks function ( what you really want is like a cash forward crack spread curve ).

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Registered: Mar 2008
Posts: 785

For the sake of discussion, here (right chart) are the current curves for CL, RB, and HO out to F13. The 321 Crack spread chart on the left is the 321 crack curve with a 1-month processing time.

Registered: Dec 2006
Posts: 3787

Thanks guys,

Is that a normal shape for the crack curve?

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