Hi there. As maybe some has noted, I was asking a lot of technical questions the last couple of weeks.
I΄d decided to change from discretionary momentum scalping to Full-time high-volume rebate sensitive scalping. The main reason: Can΄t concentrate anymore tracking 15 charts and waiting for some opportunity. It pays well some times, but lately I just lost the feeling of the market watching charts and just lose the focus trying to keep an eye on everything (I do not know, maybe i΄m getting old).
So I prefer to do something that I like more (from the early 2000, when I traded based on NYOB and TnS only and used statistical imbalance trading). And rebate sensitive scalping is the more aprox. strategy to that that i΄ve tried in the last 2 years.
So I decided to leave my current account for a while, and start studying all that I can get my hands on. I've 6-12 months for this. The steps that I set are:
1. Gather and study all the info on routing. (routes, strategies, darkpools, rebates)(google it, buy it from the brokers)
2. Refresh some tape and volume reading knowledge. (re-read classics about tape-reading, the edwards&magee book on TA (have a lot of volume reading and crowd behavior), read everything about electronic markets (old market making, ECNs, some basic knowledge about algos and other HFT strategies, old edges)
3. Watch 2 hrs/day (maybe more), the tape of some high volume stock (BAC,SIRI), create 2-3 separate T&S windows for it, sort every one by volume (all, >20k, >50-100k). Look for patterns when a level is being taken, watch what ECNs are printing more.
4. Study Lvl2, active ECN's, walls, their creation and destruction, the change in volume, order cancelling, and other possible patterns.
5. Combine 3 and 4, study it for a while.
6. Study the charts of high volume stocks and see how can I divide the timeframe into high/activity low/activity periods, and the behavior of the stocks during these.
7. Brainstorming, Brainstorming, Brainstorming
(8)(optional) Give some $$$ into a scalping course like the Afinitytrading one and learn something that maybe I haven't saw in the previous stages (it's the one that looks decent for me).
9. Once everything is my head, start to implement it into the markets, from 100-500sh lots, check the divergences between my hypothesis and the reality, fix it, and start again.
I'm in the right path??? My first target during the trading period will be like 100$/day to begin with, trading max 5k lots. As far as I can see from my inexperience I find it pretty realistic for this given trading strategy.
judging by this(and other trading related) forum's activity i can safely say that trading is dying. that in general. retail trading is dead already.
i'm talking active day trading,not some buy and hold stuff.
everything is possible and i know some people who still scalp,but it's ain't easy today, to complete with those bots,who can do pretty much whatever,while you on every level will face many many various constraints..good luck anyway!
yeah, I've that feeling too. But it cannot be the end of a whole industry :/ (maybe yes, who knows, hope not). I just cannot accept that.
The market have some bad times from time to time, and I do not believe that this will be the definitive one.
Ok, the machines are pretty fast and all. But now that every second Joe have his quant running from his basement, it will not take a long time to make it inefficient. Program trading has been on the street from the 80s as far as I know, but trading didn't end then i'm I right?.
There where a lot of "trading crisis" the last 20 years (decimalization, death of bullets, MOCs...) a lot of traders just give up when times gone tough. But I doubt that money stopped being made in the market all that time.
Same this days. I traded directional momentum strategies from 2006, it is gone as far as I can see today. The movements of more than 50c are rare today (but still happens, as today in most stocks), but there are a LOT of small 10-20c movements, just a LOT. I'm sure that a lot of people are making money in those small up/down swings.
Heart says "let the biatch die", brain says, "no way, you will find a way to take some air from it, you greedy bastard".
There must be a way... maybe not sclping, but with all this small swings, it's the only strategy (ex-edge) that can have some methods to deal with them.....
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