Quote from Tsing Tao: Once again, the BLS's U3 stat is conveniently managed to maintain the "illusion" that unemployment is much better than it actually is. It's not a coincidence that the media picks up on the U3 and only discusses it. I apologize, but I just don't know how to make that any clearer.
You don't have to apologize. I am not defending the media. I just don't see how it's the fault of the BLS or anyone who actually looks at the details that people and the media fixate on a particular number, while a whole plethora of other numbers are reported. Surely, given that all this data is released and widely available (and reported ad nauseam by the likes of HZ), the BLS is doing a really sh1t job of "managing" the data to maintain the "illusion". What sort of an "illusion" is it when journalists can see right through it?
You know perfectly well the difference between the main stream media and the blogosphere. If you "don't get it" then there isn't anything I can do to assist you in this.
I do know the difference, but what does that have to do with my point? Who's dancing arnd the issue now?
So the revisions in those late reporting states always go up, then? Or the BLS doesn't include them at all when it reports the first time? That would certainly help the number print each and every time. I have an idea, let's delay half of the states, and we'll kill the number each time! Then next week when there's a 50% revision, no one will notice. It's old news.
There is no need for exaggeration. If you read what I said carefully, I am sure you would see my point. Moreover, as you're aware, I'm sure, revisions that we're talking about are on the order of a few thousands and don't affect the 4-week moving average (which is what matters) in a significant manner.
If you would like, I shall call you such. But there are clearly two sides to the coin - without calling one right and the other wrong. There are those that believe that what the Fed is doing, and in government statistics, and there are those that believe the Fed is harming the country (and the world) and the statistics are not to be trusted. If that is a grand conspiracy, as you claim, then who am I to argue. I will go and get my foil hat at once.
Call me whatever you like, just don't call me Shirley. And yes, a grand conspiracy it is and tin foil hats 'r us!
It was a strong report. You gotta be a bit quixotic to make a bear-play based upon the supposition of massaged data. There really isn't a clear trade here as vol will continue to erode into Spring. So I guess the play is slightly short delta and short vol.
If nothing else it puts a floor under the market until the ECB drops another Tsar Bomba.
Quote from atticus: It was a strong report. You gotta be a bit quixotic to make a bear-play based upon the supposition of massaged data. There really isn't a clear trade here as vol will continue to erode into Spring. So I guess the play is slightly short delta and short vol.
If nothing else it puts a floor under the market until the ECB drops another Tsar Bomba.
Yep, agreed... In rates, ironically, vol is already so low that the trade might almost to be long vol, in hopes that all sorts of fun stuff will happen (e.g. Fed raising rates early or smth like that). Other than that, it's not entirely clear, given it's already moved a lot. Maybe stuff like blues - golds steepeners in Eurodollars has more juice, but it's a bit problematic here.
You don't have to apologize. I am not defending the media. I just don't see how it's the fault of the BLS or anyone who actually looks at the details that people and the media fixate on a particular number, while a whole plethora of other numbers are reported. Surely, given that all this data is released and widely available (and reported ad nauseam by the likes of HZ), the BLS is doing a really sh1t job of "managing" the data to maintain the "illusion". What sort of an "illusion" is it when journalists can see right through it?
[B]
I do know the difference, but what does that have to do with my point? Who's dancing arnd the issue now?
[B]
There is no need for exaggeration. If you read what I said carefully, I am sure you would see my point. Moreover, as you're aware, I'm sure, revisions that we're talking about are on the order of a few thousands and don't affect the 4-week moving average (which is what matters) in a significant manner.
[B]
Call me whatever you like, just don't call me Shirley. And yes, a grand conspiracy it is and tin foil hats 'r us!
Ok, MG - you've exhausted me with your death from a thousand cuts. I yield.
My only point in this entire thread was, is and will continue to be that the BLS's much famed monthly release of Non-Farmed Payrolls is all about a number (the U3) which is the least accurate of the employment situation (since it excludes just about anyone except the generic "unemployed looking for work" category). And for a report that is supposed to be the pinnacle of employment reports, it is the most misleading. Whether that is due to the BLS and their emphasis on it (revising the U3 to it's current state) or the media, or the tooth fairy, is irrelevant.
Quote from Tsing Tao: Ok, MG - you've exhausted me with your death from a thousand cuts. I yield.
My only point in this entire thread was, is and will continue to be that the BLS's much famed monthly release of Non-Farmed Payrolls is all about a number (the U3) which is the least accurate of the employment situation (since it excludes just about anyone except the generic "unemployed looking for work" category). And for a report that is supposed to be the pinnacle of employment reports, it is the most misleading. Whether that is due to the BLS and their emphasis on it (revising the U3 to it's current state) or the media, or the tooth fairy, is irrelevant.
So you "don't have time to waste on yet another conspiracy "stupe" (whatever the hell that word is). But you'll have time this weekend. Sorry to hear you have such a boring weekend ahead. But I shall wait with baited breath.
Eh, I'm middle aged, been married a quarter century, and the weather's too cold to do anything outside. Winter's when I do all the research stuff on the weekends, 'cuz there's nothing else to do.
Anyway, this won't take long. From what I see your headline's already been thoroughly trashed. The rest is going to be easy.
