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    Forums ›› Main ›› Trading ›› Hey all you price predictors: when is a pullback gonna come?  

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Before the end of next week 19 25.68%
between 1-2 weeks from now 7 9.46%
between 2-3 weeks from now 2 2.70%
between 3-4 weeks from now 3 4.05%
between 4-5 weeks from now 4 5.41%
NEVER!!! GO LONG CALL OPTIONS WITH FULL MARGIN!!! 39 52.70%
Total: 74 votes 100%
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1a2b3cppp
 

Registered: Sep 2008
Posts: 2494

 

02-16-12 04:15 PM


Quote from SteveNYC:

Uptrend = two or more consecutive days of green on the screen.



That's a new one.

So are you saying that after two consecutive green bars there is a greater chance of the next bar also being a green bar?

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SteveNYC
 

Registered: Jul 2010
Posts: 787

 

02-16-12 04:51 PM


Quote from 1a2b3cppp:

That's a new one.

So are you saying that after two consecutive green bars there is a greater chance of the next bar also being a green bar?





That's what I have experienced.

I believe Jesse Livermore said the same thing but more eloquently.

Human brains are wired to look for losses/red screens.

When they see an uptrend (gains/green screens), they get very nervous and hesitate/don't buy. Why? B/c they are not seeing losses/red screens.

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traderrn
 

Registered: Mar 2010
Posts: 56

 

02-16-12 09:36 PM

Uptrend - higher highs being made, last higher low holding
Downtrend - lower lows being made, last lower high holding

When the last HL (uptrend) or last LH (downtrend) is taken (did not hold), it could mean that a trend change is in progress or that it was a fake and the old trend continues.

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1a2b3cppp
 

Registered: Sep 2008
Posts: 2494

 

02-16-12 10:09 PM


Quote from SteveNYC:

That's what I have experienced.



I believe this could be easily backtested.

if (yesterday and yesterday-1) = green
{
BUY today open
SELL today close
}



*waits patiently for someone to backtest and also waits for the BACKTESTING IS WORTHLESS crew of "gurus" to hijack this thread*

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1a2b3cppp
 

Registered: Sep 2008
Posts: 2494

 

02-16-12 10:12 PM

also, how would you string them together?

Do you ALWAYS buy if the previous two days were green?

So in other words, if the chart goes like this:

day 1: green
day 2: green
day 3: green
day 4: red
day 5: green
day 6: red
day 7: green
day 8: green
day 9: green
day 10: green

You would buy on:

day 3 (because day 1 and 2 were green)
day 4 (because day 2 and 3 were green)
day 9 (because day 7 and 8 were green)
day 10 (because day 8 and 9 were green)
day 11 (because day 9 and 10 were green)

correct?

Or is it ONLY on the day after two green days preceded by a red day, in which case the only day you would buy in the above example would be day 9.

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1a2b3cppp
 

Registered: Sep 2008
Posts: 2494

 

02-16-12 10:14 PM

The current level for a 5% SPY pullback is $129.36.

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