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atticus

Registered: Mar 2007
Posts: 12608

03-21-12 08:37 PM

Quote from trefoil:

What are the chances, I wonder?

Roughly the same as Santorum winning the nom.

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trefoil

Registered: Mar 2007
Posts: 3383

03-21-12 08:48 PM

Quote from atticus:

Roughly the same as Santorum winning the nom.

1.9%.
50:1 odds.
Hmm...

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newwurldmn

Registered: Apr 2011
Posts: 2620

03-21-12 11:45 PM

Quote from Rodney King:

I suspect these days there are a lot of vol long 'n' wrongs who are hoping Iran bails them out...

I'm sure. They probably go to bed saying to themselves, "I would have made money if Greece defaulted. What are those politicians doing?" but I also have learned that don't push your luck too much on the short vol. Eventually you will get burned. Hope the stove isn't at 500 degrees then.

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njrookie1

Registered: Nov 2011
Posts: 241

03-22-12 03:17 AM

the chance is not good. it is too early. 3 point apr/may spread is still historical norm. you are betting this to widen.

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sellindexvol66

Registered: Apr 2008
Posts: 585

03-23-12 06:55 PM

Quote from Cache Landing:

FYI, I have nothing in the front 3 switches as of now.

I am long JUN/JUL from $105 this morning, looking for 125. And short JUL/SEP from $160 a week or so ago, looking for 140.

cache per your 3/19 post i hope you covered..since monday that switch has run to 220/230!!! helluva week so far for vol sellers.

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newwurldmn

Registered: Apr 2011
Posts: 2620

03-23-12 07:27 PM

Quote from njrookie1:

the chance is not good. it is too early. 3 point apr/may spread is still historical norm. you are betting this to widen.

I like the Apr/May switch at 3. Buy Apr, Sell May.

If nothing happens you breakevenish (maybe make or lose 1/2 point) and if there is a selloff, the spread will be < 3 and possibly inverted.

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