Registered: Jul 2008
01-14-12 02:08 AM
Quote from macroman:
you live in fantasy world, mister.
You can read Hernstein's and Murray's book The Bell Curve to learn about the stratification of our society according to bell curves and percentiles.
Then you can write a 20 page paper called IQ and Income using SAS and confirm the linear regressions yourself. Intelligence as measured by ASVAB percentiles are the most significant predictor of annual income.
There is no fund manager that stupid, and just because you have a different opinion doesn't mean their IQ's are that low. Most fund managers prefer low turnover to high because it may be their mandate and whenever they get inflows to their fund they figure that they must have read all of their prospectuses and, thus, are ready to let them "manage money" even if that means buying at inopportune times.
In The Bell Curve Lawyers and Accountants typically had statistics from no less than 2 standard deviations up.
How intelligent would you have to be to be a single black mother with three kids and what effect would that have on your annual income? The statistics are controversial but what IQ 80 would imply is someone who is slightly better than competent enough to write their own name and do basic math. There is no retarded investment professional managing a fund, and that much I can guarantee.
In all seriousness, I know the op is just trying to rationalize.
I'm not stupid, and I say short this market, but I do it with stops, and quantitative mathematics not relevant to any buyers popping money in the market at the beginning of the year and beginning of the month just so you don't have to worry about the hassel of handling a dollar cost averaging approach after getting paid bonuses and that's the only reason we're up these past two weeks.
The commentators are saying we are "decoupling", when that isn't possible. It's just we got so many incompetent investment professionals wanting to get paid their fees and their clients just gave them more money than usual and that will be reflected in net domestic inflows to mutual funds next month, but it is really just that there is greedy buying in the market and while it is impossible to decouple, the fact that Eurosis hasn't dropped our market more is more a reflection of that time of the year than it is as a sign of a bull market starting.