I have been trying to figure out what was the outcome of Vic's prediction contest at Dailyspeculations. So far there hasn't been an update or summary of the winner and positions. I suspect the outcome of the positions were much worse than one would expect, thus the silence. I randomly checked some of the predictions and lo and behold, let's just say they were not very sagacious.
Vic's idea was actually pretty shrewd, ask a bunch of smart people, put even money on their predictions, and sit back and relax. Although by the end of January, the average prediction was down -1.5% and the market was up by the same, so something didn't seem to go according to the plan...
As I was looking through the people making the predictions, I ran into our expert and long time contributor, Surf. Here are his 3 entries:
"dave goodboy on December 31, 2010 10:06 am
2011 Contest Prediction Picks
1. The DJIA will not surpass 12333 or break below 9997
2. Chinese rare earth small caps will continue to climb: XING breaks $5.00 per share
3. The public continues to lose interest in the stock market with the VIX will stagnate between 23.7 and 11.93"
1. The Dow needed just 7 weeks to break through his predicted high, and in 4 months it was 500 pts higher.
2. XING went into a freefall and dropped almost 90% by year's end, closing around 60 cents.
3. The VIX went about 150% up from its mid-January level, easily breaking through his predicted high.
So Surf got a rare triple whammy combo in humility. I hope the rest did slightly better at Dailyspec, still waiting for the results....
I have you on my Ignore Rodney, since I consider you a Surf alias who never got banned. But out of curiosity (who responded), I logged off and read your response. I don't follow the "big guy", as I mentioned in the first post, I simply ran into his prediction while cruising the entries for the contest.
But to make it interesting, I will summarize here Surf's predictions for this year, and we will get back to them in 11.5 months or so:
1. Bullish on the market. No % gain expressed though.
2. Bearish on Euro. It should reach parity with the dollar in 3 years or less, EUR/USD could reach 1.11 in 2012.
3. Swiss franc is projected to devalue at least 11% against the euro.
4. Japanese yen to collapse at least 23% against the U.S. dollar.
5. The bearishness extends to metals. Gold is over, finished, trashed. Gold $1300.00 per oz is in the cards for 2012
That is about it. My post was also about Vic's contest, so if you run into him, would you ask him why there hasn't been a winner declared and no results of the multiple position posted? I thought that was an interesting experience, but I fear the sagacity of the Specs' forecast wasn't validated.
Since I like to be a good game, I will include here a few predictions on my own.
1. Slightly bullish on the market. The dollar strengthening will put a break on a big rally, so let's say we close only 3-4% up.
2. NFLX will go below $50. How we get there will be an interesting ride, but eventually we will, except a takeover, but I can't predict takeovers. Currently just below $95.
3. GRPN will lose half of its value and go below $10. Currently it is just below $19.
Otherwise have a happy new year Rodney/Surf, and stay unbanned!