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S2007S
 

Registered: Aug 2006
Posts: 13836

 

04-25-12 05:36 PM

Feel like the SPX and the dow might close in the red today, CAT is down over $5.00 now dragging the index lower.

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EliteThink
 

Registered: Oct 2002
Posts: 782

 

04-25-12 10:46 PM

'Just thinking out loud and making what hopefully amounts to be an educated guess. You offer great analysis as well. thanks.

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e92335i08
 

Registered: Jan 2012
Posts: 63

 

04-26-12 07:29 PM

I ususally pay attention to Capital Context's model, which works also inside the bloomberg framework.

This could be setting up for a big compression trade. I've been following this model for sometime periodically and these spreads usually converge.

www.capitalcontext.com

Attached is from the site at 1:56pm

capital context - 4-26-12.jpg
This has been downloaded 50 time(s).

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EliteThink
 

Registered: Oct 2002
Posts: 782

 

04-27-12 08:07 AM

thanks for the info. If they have a leading model it would be interesting to track. I can't seem to find it on their site, probably because i'm too tired to see straight, plz clue me in, thanks.

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EliteThink
 

Registered: Oct 2002
Posts: 782

 

04-30-12 05:39 PM

After SPX had 4 up days in a row, the fifth is, so far, in negative territory. It is amazing how quickly the pundits flip the view point. It seemed many were predicting a move to 1327 using everything from measured move analysis to fib ratios. Since SPX held the 1357 level, twice, and has now rallied to, as of last week, over 1400, new highs are now being called for. The dow did managed to retest highs last Friday. The Comp and NDX were not quite as enthusiastic, and with aapl now looking to close at least 50% of the gap, we may be in holding pattern until the employment report and election results later this week. U.S. indexes are entering into the 7th week of this trading range, i think it is unlikely it will last more than 10 weeks. Overall, i would think a new high would print in the next few weeks. But, with some of the negative news and seasonality coming down the pipe, I would be hesitant to be long.

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e92335i08
 

Registered: Jan 2012
Posts: 63

 

05-01-12 04:12 PM

Short Squeeze into fridays NFP number. I'm a little more pessimistic on this Fridays NFP #. Caution on longs.

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