Forums > Main > Trading > SPX/ES Market Outlook

Old Mar 15th, 2012, 11:12 AM   #103
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 778
Sorry to hear about the exit. Many are experiencing the same.

Fed day's rally was explosive, with the vix actualy rising as well. Today the DOW is straddling the unchanged line but the TRANS are up a decent amount. AAPL has also backed off from the newest high of over 600. Fed day created a gap up but it might be a bit early to mention the need for a gap fill. If AAPL or the DOW marches forward SPX should easily take out 1402, and then the next slight resistance level, of which all levels have been largly ignored, is at 1440. The DOW is working on its 7th up day in a row, a sign of a market's disconnect with reality. Good trading.
Old Mar 15th, 2012, 11:12 AM   #104
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: chicago
Posts: 20,709
transports respecting the flag in yellow arows at 5266 upper channel line and add in the break below channel ,its forming a megaphone ,5266 is a ledge in mp(red line) ,if it can break above, the yellow circle is 5320-5336 resistance..edit ..that bear flag combined with the break below and return to the upper channel line has formed a small inverted head and shoulder pattern
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File Type: png 2012-03-15-tos_charts.png trans.png (75.4 KB, 60 views)
Old Mar 16th, 2012, 10:56 AM   #105
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: MI
Posts: 63
Look at this chart, the weekly close on the Transports is right at trendline resistance. It looks like it will close at resistance.

Yesterday the it probed over the trendline and retreated.

This is an important area of resistance for the transports.

Also look at the TF futures (Russel 2K)

Still have not gone over that 835 area. Another sign of resistance.

The indicies could continue to push higher but to do so it will need a break out of the transports as well as the russell to move the broad market higher.

5384 in the transports is an important area if this broad market move continues.
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Old Mar 17th, 2012, 03:07 AM   #106
Join Date: Jan 2011
Posts: 1,581
Wile E. Coyote Update.
Old Mar 23rd, 2012, 03:54 PM   #107
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 194
I'm of the opinion that the sp has stayed fairly even lately. Coming up is the end of the quarter with quarterly reports to be sent out by all the institutions to their clients. I think that puts a strong possibility that the institutions will want to keep stock prices up for the rest of the month. I put on a March quarterly iron condor for 1435, 1430, 1370, & 1365 for a credit of .80. Figure any price decline will wait another week.
Old Mar 26th, 2012, 04:24 PM   #108
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 1,233
My opinion is some old indicators like Transports don't matter much in today's markets. As I posted months ago, the bull leg since mid January is due to leadership from big cap tech. What I posted was until such time as I saw weakness in AAPL/IBM/MSFT,
there is no reason to expect a correction in markets. SPX was in the low 1300s when I posted this.

IBM crossing $200 and holding was very important. AAPL isn't a good indicator because it went up so fast its decoupled from the indexes. But IBM is more of a steady, normal trend with ups and downs.

So for anyone looking for an end of the bull leg, I'd keep an eye on IBM and maybe others like MSFT and ORCL. If they stall out, that could be the end of the bull trend. But something like IBM could go to $250 wouldn't surprise me. That's a lot of points on the Dow.

Like many have posted, don't try to guess the end or the level. Watch the indicators for when these leaders stop climbing.
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