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Old Mar 24th, 2012, 11:09 PM   #43
bwolinsky
 
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: KCMO, Kansas and Kentucky
Posts: 4,935
Quote:
Quote from Wide Tailz:



The only way, IMO, is to check an EW practitioner's account statement.

So true, but remember your hourly bars lag the reversal significantly.
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Old Mar 24th, 2012, 11:12 PM   #44
Wide Tailz
 
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: California
Posts: 1,953
Quote:
Quote from bwolinsky:



I have a lot against EW because it cannot be backtested, and this is a fault so obvious to me I'm always amazed at the poster's lack of incredulity when there is no backtest I would call robust using those so-called "methods." Gann, Elliott Wave, Dow Theory all fall into a category of belief system, not to be used to trade based on any prediction it might make, and only until there are rules for these methods will it ever prove that there is anything profitable about them.
For similar reasons, I have a lot against fundamental analysis.

EW fits into my trend following system by filtering the buy signals by wave type. My be$t trades, by far, have been during a third wave (either the general market or the stock itself).

Wave 3 is the first higher low and breaks the previous trend line, and typically follows noticeable divergence in MACD, RSI, money flow, Stochastics, ROC, and any other momentum indicator. A huge candle as the dam breaks is the final confirmation.

OP: my comment for your analysis is that I'm amazed how far you take the corrective wave counts. I've never had much success trying to analyze them. I see the SP500 currently in a B wave completing the C wave of next lower degree, itself seeing wave 5 of next lower degree completing as I type.....

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Old Mar 24th, 2012, 11:14 PM   #45
Wide Tailz
 
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: California
Posts: 1,953
Quote:
Quote from bwolinsky:

So true, but remember your hourly bars lag the reversal significantly.
I'm willing to give up a substantial part of the move for a better confirmation that it is actually happening.

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Old Mar 25th, 2012, 03:42 PM   #46
snowrider
 
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 362
Quote:
Hi snowrider some great posts on EW well done, some interesting points mapped out in the S&P.... I just have a question... is there any distinction on grey/purple trend lines? i.e one more probable than the other
BoyTrader - Thanks for nice words. The purple lines are my preferred wave counts, while the grey ones are the alternative counts. Of course there are numerous possible wave counts out there, and different people have different preferred counts. I trade to the direction of the purple line. Once the market reaches some point where the purple line becomes invalid, the grey line takes over and becomes the preferred one.
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Old Mar 25th, 2012, 04:06 PM   #47
snowrider
 
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 362
Quote:
Quote from Wide Tailz:

For similar reasons, I have a lot against fundamental analysis.

EW fits into my trend following system by filtering the buy signals by wave type. My be$t trades, by far, have been during a third wave (either the general market or the stock itself).

Wave 3 is the first higher low and breaks the previous trend line, and typically follows noticeable divergence in MACD, RSI, money flow, Stochastics, ROC, and any other momentum indicator. A huge candle as the dam breaks is the final confirmation.

OP: my comment for your analysis is that I'm amazed how far you take the corrective wave counts. I've never had much success trying to analyze them. I see the SP500 currently in a B wave completing the C wave of next lower degree, itself seeing wave 5 of next lower degree completing as I type.....

Wide Tailz - Thanks for commenting. Believe it or not, I don't give a shxt on any fundamental analysis. Ironically, I used to be doing and writting a lot of fundamental analysis, and I knew that it was just like writing some stories because people wanted to read stories.

I strongly agree with you that the best and easist trades are on the wave-3. About the question how I "take the corrective wave counts", I start from the highest possible degree of timeframe (e.g., montly chart) to analyze and then scale down to the tradeable timeframe (e.g., daily chart). Therefore, sometime a corrective wave in a monthly chart still has some impulsive wave in the daily chart which we can make money from.
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Old Mar 29th, 2012, 08:36 PM   #48
snowrider
 
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 362
03/29/2012

Comments are welcome!

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