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snowrider
Registered: Jul 2010
Posts: 362 |
03-24-12 07:15 PM
Quote from MADASINHATTER:
Yeah i got one.Why do you call it perfect? Do you mean in hindsight? Or is it part of the new world order where you take a word or phrase and use it to describe the complete opposite? Like saying " bringing peace and stability" while dropping bombs on people.Is it perfect in that sense? Where you show that it could go either up or down,on a scale of 1-10 how useful and perfect is that,say compared to just guessing?
MADASINHATTER - I call it Perfect Wave because it is the brand of the series of my wave posts. I could have called it Snowrider's Wave Analysis (but that did not sound powerful). Of course, you can interpet the word "perfect" as anything as you want. The analysis is of some educated guess. Isn't the whole world making guesses all the time? The analysis is based on the Elliott Wave Principle. If you don't know what that is, I would recommend you getting a book and study first.
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bwolinsky
Registered: Jul 2008
Posts: 4551 |
03-24-12 08:07 PM
What has your backtest showed and what have your results been?
It's apparent some logic's went into the chart drawings, but none placed on any performance summaries or analysis of the data.
Reminds me of Hershyites, must draw straight lines, without questioning whether they actually did go to where they ended when they were drawn or any regard to what actually happened later.
This thread is missing that analysis, and it's required if you expect anyone to really analyze the charts that have been posted.
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snowrider
Registered: Jul 2010
Posts: 362 |
03-25-12 12:16 AM
Quote from bwolinsky:
What has your backtest showed and what have your results been?
It's apparent some logic's went into the chart drawings, but none placed on any performance summaries or analysis of the data.
Reminds me of Hershyites, must draw straight lines, without questioning whether they actually did go to where they ended when they were drawn or any regard to what actually happened later.
This thread is missing that analysis, and it's required if you expect anyone to really analyze the charts that have been posted.
bwolinsky - I have extensively played system long time ago, I wrote tons of systems with TradeStation, I did backtesting 24x7, and then I threw all my systems to trash can. What I want to tell you about backtest is ... been there and done that. If you are asking some trader who utilizes price action and/or pattern methodologies (e.g., Gann, Elliott Wave, Dow Theory etc.) about back testing, you ask a wrong question!
I post my wave analysis here not looking for followers. I am looking for people who speak the same langauage (are also playing EW) for discussion. I am looking for people who enjoy playing EW on trading like playing chess. If you don't believe in EW, you won't be interested in reading my posts.
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bwolinsky
Registered: Jul 2008
Posts: 4551 |
03-25-12 03:46 AM
Quote from snowrider:
bwolinsky - I have extensively played system long time ago, I wrote tons of systems with TradeStation, I did backtesting 24x7, and then I threw all my systems to trash can. What I want to tell you about backtest is ... been there and done that. If you are asking some trader who utilizes price action and/or pattern methodologies (e.g., Gann, Elliott Wave, Dow Theory etc.) about back testing, you ask a wrong question!
I post my wave analysis here not looking for followers. I am looking for people who speak the same langauage (are also playing EW) for discussion. I am looking for people who enjoy playing EW on trading like playing chess. If you don't believe in EW, you won't be interested in reading my posts.
Apparently the scientific method is not your forte.
Elliott Wave has been found to be impossible to backtest, so rather than claim your strategies come from EW, it's more that even you don't understand the rules because there aren't any.
You place levels of your trades into a pattern, if it goes here, but not above there then it's one of the markers, but as far as that being predictive, it has been shown to be utterly useless, and until I've seen strategies with backtests based on the method, it will continue to be mindless garbage.
Don't you at least want to know the probabilities of trading using these methods? It seems you're into posting charts, rather than trading. Since you are familiar with tradestation get reacquainted with easylanguage by working from multicharts for awhile, then come back when you've done the work to determine if one of the markers is more likely to happen after another mark was reached, add some logic, then tell us how it does.
I have a lot against EW because it cannot be backtested, and this is a fault so obvious to me I'm always amazed at the poster's lack of incredulity when there is no backtest I would call robust using those so-called "methods." Gann, Elliott Wave, Dow Theory all fall into a category of belief system, not to be used to trade based on any prediction it might make, and only until there are rules for these methods will it ever prove that there is anything profitable about them.
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Wide Tailz
Registered: Sep 2011
Posts: 1519 |
03-25-12 04:05 AM
Quote from bwolinsky:
What has your backtest showed and what have your results been?
It's apparent some logic's went into the chart drawings, but none placed on any performance summaries or analysis of the data.
Reminds me of Hershyites, must draw straight lines, without questioning whether they actually did go to where they ended when they were drawn or any regard to what actually happened later.
This thread is missing that analysis, and it's required if you expect anyone to really analyze the charts that have been posted.
EW is very difficult to back test because programming a pivot requires some critical parameter selection (days back / forward being the first I can think of). From these pivots comes the trend lines, etc. I still haven't figured out how to do it. 
A simpler way would be to simply back test your trend following trigger and note from the forward test when it coincided with the various waves, although this creates a danger of counting the waves in hindsight.
The only way, IMO, is to check an EW practitioner's account statement.
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