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snowrider
Registered: Jul 2010
Posts: 362 |
04-09-12 02:35 AM
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One question for you is that you think we are still in the wave 4 from peak of 2000? What formation will this wave 4 take?
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busted - Thanks for commenting. Yes, I agree with you (kind of) that EW "is very complicated". But I would like to say that it is very easy to use in trading (because EW has some rules for validating a wave). About your question if "we are still in the wave 4 from peak of 2000", that is what my assumption for labelling 667 (2009) as [[[C]]] is based on. With that assumption, the "wave 4" is in the formation of a huge triangle. About QE3, I don't care, and I never care any FA stuff.
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ScalperJoe
Registered: Mar 2010
Posts: 608 |
04-11-12 12:25 AM
Quote from snowrider:
Currently my preferred count is that a wave-[[B]] (which is your wave-3) has ended, and a big collapse all the way to 960 area in the end of this year is underway.
Got it, thanks. However, I'm curious as to how you get the 960 target, and what is the scenario for it to occur this year?
If it breaks 1,320 then perhaps it goes flatline to around 1,250-1,290 range during mid-summer (near mid-point of 5 wave pattern which began last October), before closing out in the black for 2012.
Without some climactic event (war, lack of additional QE, hyperinflation, Euro/dollar collapse, etc), I'm not sure the market is poised break the prior two years of intrayear lows and to fall to 960. I'm not suggesting it won't retrace on the larger wave count eventually, just not by the end of this year.
Your thoughts, comments?
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toc
Registered: Sep 2004
Posts: 2004 |
04-12-12 03:07 AM
1260 is my target too (not by elliot wave though) but cannot make a case for 960 as of yet.
Ok here I see.........from the low of 66.75 on Spy to high of 142.21 it is roughly 75 points. 62.5% retracement gives 46 odd points which takes it 960 (950.48 to be exact).
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snowrider
Registered: Jul 2010
Posts: 362 |
04-12-12 04:26 AM
Quote from ScalperJoe:
Got it, thanks. However, I'm curious as to how you get the 960 target, and what is the scenario for it to occur this year?
If it breaks 1,320 then perhaps it goes flatline to around 1,250-1,290 range during mid-summer (near mid-point of 5 wave pattern which began last October), before closing out in the black for 2012.
Without some climactic event (war, lack of additional QE, hyperinflation, Euro/dollar collapse, etc), I'm not sure the market is poised break the prior two years of intrayear lows and to fall to 960. I'm not suggesting it won't retrace on the larger wave count eventually, just not by the end of this year.
Your thoughts, comments?
ScalperJoe - Thanks for nice commenting. About the 960 area target, it is just at a 0.382 fib ratio from 2009-03 lo to the recent hi. I would like to take back what I mentioned last time about the timing of the end of this year. I mentioned that because I wanted to load something for next year by the end of this year. The actual timing could be 2013-09 to see the big cycle low. When the time is there, and when the price is at a fib ratio (say, 0.5 at 1045), that will be an excellent opportunity to load.
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snowrider
Registered: Jul 2010
Posts: 362 |
04-12-12 04:43 AM
Quote from toc:
1260 is my target too (not by elliot wave though) but cannot make a case for 960 as of yet.
Ok here I see.........from the low of 66.75 on Spy to high of 142.21 it is roughly 75 points. 62.5% retracement gives 46 odd points which takes it 960 (950.48 to be exact).
toc - Thanks for comments. Yep, that is a fic ratio retracement, but my timing was not right about the year end.
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toc
Registered: Sep 2004
Posts: 2004 |
04-12-12 07:11 AM
Snowrider,
given that you have been doing the EW for sometime now, what percentage of your calls prove to be good. have never been into EW although use Fib retracements etc. at times.
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