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Old Feb 16th, 2012, 06:48 PM   #73
magicwords
 
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 110
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Old Feb 16th, 2012, 11:21 PM   #74
N54_Fan
 
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 388
Quote:
Quote from magicwords:

So,...I just had to review your trades out of curiosity. For the last 6 weeks (the best 6 weeks for stocks in a long while) you have had the large majority as losing trades. In fact a few times you have 6/6 losing trades (Long or Short). You REALLY need to review your stats and your lack of a stop loss. You should ALWAYS have a stop loss when a trade is placed. Its simple...figure out where the long (or short) position would have to drop (or rise) to before you would think "OH SHIT I'M WRONG"....That's where you place the stop. I seriously doubt that's at a 45% loss or 10% loss on a position. You get out of some positions at 1.5% loss and then wait 45% loss on others?....does not make sense.

I know you said "backtesting" revealed long and short positions worked best with no stops. Remember "past performance is not neccesarily indicative of future performance" Your back testing is flawed. You should limit yourself to only long positions in up trends and short positions in down trends and then a combination of long & short when the market is trendless. Your reversion to the mean method is working for shit here because markets that trend are not likely to revert to the mean until there has been large deviations from that mean. In uptrends people are exuberant and keep pushing prices higher. In downtrends the opposite. Markets can remain irrational alot longer than you can remain solvent. This often qouted saying means that markets will not revert to the mean when "it should". You can not predict the market and it looks like you were trying to pick tops and bottoms. Some you were successfull,...most you were not.

Go back and look at your trades and the dates you entered and ask yourself WHY did you enter the trade in that direction at that time? Then ask was the market and or stock trending in the opposite direction. In almost all of your losing trades I would say the answer is that you took trades against the dominant trend. In some of the trades that I reviewed of yours every single time frame from weekly, daily, 60 min, and 15 min ALL were trending against you and yet you still shorted.

Why do I care whether you lose money?....well I guess in many ways I still see a bit of my own early trading mistakes in what you are doing. I am just trying to be helpful and you need a bit of tough reality check to stop this draw down. You MUST use stops and you should learn about risk management. Risking 20% per trade with no stop is NOT risk management. Thats like saying "I dont need seat belts when I ride in ANY car because I ride in 5 different types of cars... one for each workday"....sounds illogical doesn't it?...so does your risk management.

You may or may not read all this and you may not listen to what I am saying. But SOME DAY you will come to your senses and reread what I have written and hopefully follow it and become profitable.

Good Luck

N54_Fan
    Quote
Old Feb 17th, 2012, 12:30 AM   #75
magicwords
 
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 110
Quote:
Quote from N54_Fan:

So,...I just had to review your trades out of curiosity. For the last 6 weeks (the best 6 weeks for stocks in a long while) you have had the large majority as losing trades. In fact a few times you have 6/6 losing trades (Long or Short). You REALLY need to review your stats and your lack of a stop loss. You should ALWAYS have a stop loss when a trade is placed. Its simple...figure out where the long (or short) position would have to drop (or rise) to before you would think "OH SHIT I'M WRONG"....That's where you place the stop. I seriously doubt that's at a 45% loss or 10% loss on a position. You get out of some positions at 1.5% loss and then wait 45% loss on others?....does not make sense.

I know you said "backtesting" revealed long and short positions worked best with no stops. Remember "past performance is not neccesarily indicative of future performance" Your back testing is flawed. You should limit yourself to only long positions in up trends and short positions in down trends and then a combination of long & short when the market is trendless. Your reversion to the mean method is working for shit here because markets that trend are not likely to revert to the mean until there has been large deviations from that mean. In uptrends people are exuberant and keep pushing prices higher. In downtrends the opposite. Markets can remain irrational alot longer than you can remain solvent. This often qouted saying means that markets will not revert to the mean when "it should". You can not predict the market and it looks like you were trying to pick tops and bottoms. Some you were successfull,...most you were not.

Go back and look at your trades and the dates you entered and ask yourself WHY did you enter the trade in that direction at that time? Then ask was the market and or stock trending in the opposite direction. In almost all of your losing trades I would say the answer is that you took trades against the dominant trend. In some of the trades that I reviewed of yours every single time frame from weekly, daily, 60 min, and 15 min ALL were trending against you and yet you still shorted.

Why do I care whether you lose money?....well I guess in many ways I still see a bit of my own early trading mistakes in what you are doing. I am just trying to be helpful and you need a bit of tough reality check to stop this draw down. You MUST use stops and you should learn about risk management. Risking 20% per trade with no stop is NOT risk management. Thats like saying "I dont need seat belts when I ride in ANY car because I ride in 5 different types of cars... one for each workday"....sounds illogical doesn't it?...so does your risk management.

You may or may not read all this and you may not listen to what I am saying. But SOME DAY you will come to your senses and reread what I have written and hopefully follow it and become profitable.

Good Luck

N54_Fan
Thanks.
    Quote
Old Feb 17th, 2012, 08:22 PM   #76
magicwords
 
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 110
    Quote
Old Feb 21st, 2012, 08:07 PM   #77
magicwords
 
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 110
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Old Feb 23rd, 2012, 12:21 AM   #78
magicwords
 
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 110
    Quote
 
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