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Old Feb 16th, 2012, 01:15 PM   #433
atticus
 
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: USA
Posts: 12,879
Quote:
Quote from ryanpatrick:

Okay, I'm going to give the straddle a try here.....ROVI is in no man's land here at $34.50, 35 straddle with 1 day left gives me a risk of 3.40. I'm leaning to the downside with the odds of ROVI dropping back to $28-$30 area. Last 4 quarter says ROVI averages about 12% swing at -6, +22, -9, -39. I left -39 out as the odds of that happening again may be quarters away. My guess is it drops to $31.20, about a 9% drop from 34.50 and 3.80 return on 3.4 investment. I'm not looking for big return, and I'm not going all in, just 1 contract to test the straddle play and see how it pans out. If it works out to my price point, then I'm up $20 after comm., the key is that this gives me experience on the straddle in such a situation. Going to set it up now.
This looks ok, good luck with it. My guess is lower as well and you're slightly short deltas. Is this in a cash account? Can you lock deltas in shares AH?
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Old Feb 16th, 2012, 01:15 PM   #434
ryanpatrick
 
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: US
Posts: 360
Quote:
Quote from kinggyppo:

wow you have no fu^&in idea what you are talking about, this is one of THE dumbest statements I have ever seen on this board, I will let you figure out why.....
Ha, if you don't like comments here, then go elsewhere....maybe find your own trading method and do your own thing. No for your to come in here....I bet you were a doubter....what was your bet? That I'd be out -1700 by end of Jan? end of Feb? Like I said, I'm still consider myself at the learning stage of option strategies, but I know full well how these stocks I've traded will do on earnings. no need to bring up F-words or that sort of crap in here. In all my point to atticus was that these market makers are no casino dealers....they don't hold an 80/20 edge on any trade...at best their maybe 50/50, but when you get your research in place, your odds of hitting 777 are closer to 60/40 then the 10/90 you might get at a slot machine. There's investing like Buffet, and then there's trading/gambling how ever you want to call it.
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Old Feb 16th, 2012, 01:21 PM   #435
ryanpatrick
 
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: US
Posts: 360
Quote:
Quote from atticus:

This looks ok, good luck with it. My guess is lower as well and you're slightly short deltas. Is this in a cash account? Can you lock deltas in shares AH?
It's a cash account....I didn't want to mess with the trading margin calls and all. Talked about that issue with a rep from the broker for like an hour about it. They will give you some leeway though if you link accounts. I have another account where I only trade stocks, actually just holding long term positions I have 2545 in TSCO shares at avg price of 80, and 4000 shares in DNDN at avg price 12.88. I don't consider myself with enough knowledge to hold options long term just yet. As for short term option trades, I like my result so far, although the leverage was nothing that I expected at all. One thing is I've never seen so many +100% returns before, I'm used to 10-20% returns over 1-3 week period from earning trades, but the leverage now is wicked.
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Old Feb 16th, 2012, 01:33 PM   #436
kinggyppo
 
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 6,102
Quote:
Quote from ryanpatrick:

Ha, if you don't like comments here, then go elsewhere....maybe find your own trading method and do your own thing. No for your to come in here....I bet you were a doubter....what was your bet? That I'd be out -1700 by end of Jan? end of Feb? Like I said, I'm still consider myself at the learning stage of option strategies, but I know full well how these stocks I've traded will do on earnings. no need to bring up F-words or that sort of crap in here. In all my point to atticus was that these market makers are no casino dealers....they don't hold an 80/20 edge on any trade...at best their maybe 50/50, but when you get your research in place, your odds of hitting 777 are closer to 60/40 then the 10/90 you might get at a slot machine. There's investing like Buffet, and then there's trading/gambling how ever you want to call it.
My comment was in no way directed at you. I think you are trading very well. Atticus is well worth listening to, one of the best option traders I have ever seen. I take issue with falcon comparing you two as you are both in different places. People irritate me when they throw the word "edge" around and haven't a clue what they are talking about. I probably should have kept my mouth shut. Sometimes people need to be called on their bullshit though, anyway good luck with your trading.
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Old Feb 16th, 2012, 02:05 PM   #437
jeffalvinson
 
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 453
[QUOTE]Quote from ryanpatrick:
01-05-12 07:12 AM
Just back from the holidays...
Still have $1794.55 from my account. Didn't quite reach my target of $4000, but now I have some experience in options and a full year. New target: $18,000 by end of year. If I can reach that modest gain, I will have learned a lot, either that or $0. Don't want anything in between.


[QUOTE]Quote from ryanpatrick:
02-16-12 07:08 AM
I am all cash now at a little above 9400. Net gain on wtw was about 394.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ryan,

Look at your two posts above from the beginning of this year to
today (6 weeks).
That's a +423% account gain in 6 weeks!!!

At this rate your $18K goal for 2012 will be reached by the end of April.

Whatever your eating, drinking or smoking...please send me some now!
I was sitting here looking at your results for 2012 and comparing them to mine and I am beginning to feel physically ill.


Jeff
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Old Feb 16th, 2012, 02:09 PM   #438
atticus
 
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: USA
Posts: 12,879
Ryan, you earned on WTW? I thought you bot the 77/72 strangle?
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