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jeffalvinson
Registered: Nov 2006
Posts: 453 |
02-14-12 09:09 PM
Quote from jeffalvinson:
The SPY opened below its Pivot Point (135.20) and has so far
been working its way down to Support Level 2 (134.41).
I suspect it will bounce at or near S2 and at least head back to the PP.
This morning I mentioned the SPY opened below its (PP) Pivot Point and was heading down to (S2) Support Level 2 and then it would bounce off S2 and then head back to the PP.
Take a look at the attached chart of the SPY Pivot Points now that the day is completed.
That was textbook perfect. Its just a good way to help determine
which way the markets are headed with about 65% accuracy.
Even though the total movement was only about 1.0 SPY point, that translates to 10.0 S&P points.
 spy pivot points 02_14_2012.png
This has been downloaded 51 time(s).
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ryanpatrick
Registered: Nov 2011
Posts: 360 |
02-15-12 02:37 AM
The way WTW closed out AH, not sure if it can make a 10% pop tomorrow, but sure liked the way it dropped to $67 or its AH highs at $84. If any of those two price points can hold, I'll take this as a positive.
As for in over my head on this trade, sure....the odds are clearly against me here with 3 days remaining. I did say I was willing to risk this $680 of my profits from the two locked in trades today. I also did say that if I were in it to really make a profit from this trade, then I'd have gone with a put spread on the put side and limit cost from $680 to $500, which would have made it worthwhile. I think we get upside tomorrow though. Why would WTW want to buy its own share at current price levels if it didn't have some sort of plan to increase the share price even higher. If enough fund managers see it that way, then we get a solid pop, at least to $85, possibly a drag into $90. Persuading investors to jump in will be key as FY12 guidance was barely inline.
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ForexForex
Registered: Jun 2009
Posts: 888 |
02-15-12 04:05 AM
Quote from ForexForex:
I think with the WTW trade you are "biting off more than you can chew", or in other words "you have too much on your plate".
Quote from ryanpatrick:
As for in over my head on this trade, sure....the odds are clearly against me here with 3 days remaining..
I think the WTW trade will weigh you down in the future, perhaps if you were not such a glutton you might get better results.
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monti1a
Registered: May 2006
Posts: 260 |
02-15-12 11:12 AM
Quote from ryanpatrick:
At first look I wasn't too bullish too with resistance on chart at $77.50-$80 usually trumping all else. But it got interest when I went to get a look at WTW's short interest. I saw 14M shares short or a whopping 20% of float. This one could go the way of GMCR and NFLX where a slight beat or even inline report gives a big short cover rally afterwards and WTW breaks above $85. To the downside, I don't see WTW going below $70. With 3 weeks here at $75-$80 range, all the sellers have already sold....The only thing that can push WTW from $78 to $70 is if the earnings just missed......with 20% short float, any large investor who wanted to short is also already in play. The only investors not playing this one right now are the bull investors.
I got it.....I'm going to do a 1 strangle here taking the 82.5 call and 77.5 puts......I'm looking for $70 at most to downside, but I think upside is the wild card. Like I said before, WTW's +47%, -10%, -23%, and -11% swings should give a strong confidence that the stock goes in one or the other direction. Now, I'm not necessarily looking for profits here (FOSL and RAX gave me over $2000 in net profits today still holding FOSL but will sell before close today). Instead, I'm looking to test the strangle play here, and I'll mark WTW as a high beta stock with moves at +/-10% post earnings.
Hi Ryan,
Where are you getting your short float info?
I'm looking at yahoo finance and only see 7.19M shares short and not 14M...although % of float is still 24%
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falconview
Registered: Jun 2010
Posts: 1465 |
02-15-12 01:32 PM
Forex Forex
Ryan, in my view is not overtrading. He is practicing diversification of bets. Hoping, one or two will be home runs, and the others will either not lose much, or breakeven. But the idea is that a good winner, wipes out all losses and the averages are positive overall.
Interesting to see it work. Iīm working on my own version of testing what he is doing, to see if I can do it with something similar but based on technicals, since I lack the subjective knowledge and skills.
First test today.
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ryanpatrick
Registered: Nov 2011
Posts: 360 |
02-15-12 01:53 PM
Quote from monti1a:
Hi Ryan,
Where are you getting your short float info?
I'm looking at yahoo finance and only see 7.19M shares short and not 14M...although % of float is still 24%
Sorry it is 7M, I get mine from www.nasdaq.com. I think it shows up on that site first, but I must have looked at another stock's short interest, and then I confirm the % float at www.finviz.com
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