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Old Nov 5th, 2011, 01:01 PM   #7
iceman1
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Chicago
Posts: 4,266
Quote:
Quote from sfbayarea:

Today -60

Can't believe it:

Bought @ 11.188
Sold @ 11.1601

What can't you believe ?? That you lost $60 ????!!!!!!! That you lost anything? That you didn't make a profit?

... that is the just the beginning of many losses. Do you think you can make a profit 100% of the time?? If you in any way shape or form harbor that belief then quit now and save yourself a lot of aggravation and frustration. Why are you exiting so soon. Is there some valid reason or strategy why you exited, other -60?? lol
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Old Nov 5th, 2011, 01:21 PM   #8
N54_Fan
 
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 388
Quote:
Quote from Riffraffpatrol:

Here's one of your problems in a nutshell:

You aren't giving the trades nearly enough time to develop.

As soon as you are in...you are out....??? You will get eaten alive in
commissions if you continue with this approach. Remember any stock
has an average true range in any time frame that represent normal up and down movements for a current period of time...whatever time frame you are trading on will determine the type of volatility you should expect.

Simple risk management rules will help you stay in the trade longer... be a robot...it will help take emotions out of it:


1) First determine your max capital position as a % of your total capital. Remember there is always a chance of catastrophic loss at any given moment due to an unexpected event (black swan or outlier), so you always want to account for worst case scenario and make sure you always have enough to remain in the game-- figure out a % that you are comfortable with... 10-20% are not uncommon guidelines.

2) Have a max amount you are willing to lose on any trade as a % of your total capital...typically the school of thought ranges from anywhere between .5% conservatively to 2% agressively.

3) Position size base on the above parameters along with utilizing a hard/soft stop price at which point the chart proves you wrong based on average true range and/or a break of support or resistance. Make sure and at least have a 2:1 minimum reward to risk, so even if you are wrong more often than you are right you have postive expectacy potential. Example: Stock price = $ 20; Average true range on 5min chart .25 Target $ 21; I personally like a 2x ATR volatility stop-- so in this case--Stop $ 19.50. On a $ 50,000 account with a conservative .5% max $ risk and a 20% max capital position-- $ 250 would be the max loss amount which based on a .50 stop would allow 500 shares...and at $ 20 the position cost is $ 10,000 which also meets the rules of 20% of $ 50,000.

Now let the trade play out. If market conditions change or an indicator leads you to believe a reversal is imminent and will negatively affect your trade-- don't be afraid to close out the position early-- proper position sizing certainly doesnt mean always waiting for a winner or loser no matter what. But if market conditions havent changed- stick with the trade.

Scaling out in phases as price moves toward your desired target can also be utilized along with then moving the stop up-- this is another conservative approach that will drastically reduce risk first while allowing for taking advantage of continued price movement profits.

Hope this helps.
THIS...

GOOD solid advice!
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Old Nov 5th, 2011, 09:56 PM   #9
klurby
 
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Chicago
Posts: 72
What is your strategy if you will? I am a little confused as to what you are trying to do.
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Old Nov 7th, 2011, 10:37 PM   #10
sfbayarea
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 327
Thanks for the responses.. I'm currently awaiting while I change brokerages.

No one said it's easy in the beginning. It's true that I get out too early. That's one thing that I have to work on.

I'm primarily using price action to determine whether I should get in or not. Unfortunately, my problem is that I just don't stay in long enough to let them develope on the profitable one and don't get out early enough on the bad ones. I seem to want to get out when I'm up 1 pt. That's the problem. It's basically the fear from those early losses in which I had no idea what I was doing that put the fear in me. I need to be more disciplined about it. I inadvertantly turned into a scalper.

I got a lot to work on but I'm still headed in the right direction. I don't expect to be profitable after one month of trading on my own without any mentoring. A lot of things, I had spent a ton of time on to figure out on my own. It would be shocking if I'm able to turn profitable after a two months.

I'll be reposting my trades when I'm back on and get everything transfered and set up.

I'm just mad about the lost $60 since my guess was right but it didn't execute. -$60 wasn't as bad as it went down more afterwards and eventually rebounded an hour later. I was so pissed that it didn't execute that I didn't trade the rest of the day and am currently changing brokers.

If my guess was wrong, it'd be on me and I can't really blame anyone else but me but I blamed Scottrade on that one. Scottrade in my opinion just sucks for day trading.
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Old Nov 7th, 2011, 10:59 PM   #11
Lucias
 
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 996
For sure, I see this in the ES on the micro time frames. It creates predictable patterns that repeat and semi repeat over and over. There aren't any market maker in ES though. I believe it is because the "bigs" use sell algorithms that try to make it non obvious what they are doing.. So they buy and sell. They don't just go in and sell but they buy and sell. They'll sell to drive price to new low and then they'll buy to drive price to a slight high -- and then they sell again and take out those stops. The clue is the price creeps in one direction though.

But for sure.. you can see it is very on the micro time frame to see the traders stops getting burned out.

The "gaming" mostly happens on the micro time frames. They get me too.. actually once they get patterns established they don't even have to hide their tracks because other traders will just anticipating they will do it.
I find that I can see the activity better on a tick-based chart.

>At times, it feels like people see that I know the trend and try to psyche >me out by bluffing the other way forcing me to end the trade early and >taking a small loss or neutral commission loss. It used to be worse, I >used to get completely psyched out by one candlestick reversal and sell >for big losses yet only to see the trade develope minutes later. Does >anyone else get this feeling like the MM are watching you and trying to >psyche you out by betting against you on one candlestick just to get >you out for a loss?
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Old Nov 7th, 2011, 11:31 PM   #12
pennystocker
 
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 192
Quote:
Quote from sfbayarea:

.... At times, it feels like people see that I know the trend and try to psyche me out by bluffing the other way forcing me to end the trade early and taking a small loss or neutral commission loss. It used to be worse, I used to get completely psyched out by one candlestick reversal and sell for big losses yet only to see the trade develope minutes later. Does anyone else get this feeling like the MM are watching you and trying to psyche you out by betting against you on one candlestick just to get you out for a loss?
Yes. I once put on a short position and instantly a a reversal came on. It got me really nervous. Then a short time later a subpenny bid showed up forcing support on the price. That got more nervous so I closed the position as soon as I saw small gain. Turns out at the end of the day I was right all along on the direction. I know, it's one time observation but I've become extremely paranoid.
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