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HATEtheRisk
Registered: Aug 2011
Posts: 1587 |
09-30-11 06:42 AM
Quote from HATEtheRisk:
example for one of the "old" turtles strategies, is,
to wait for a new High after at least 4 bars between the last high and go short on the new high or wait for the next bar until price starting to go down and short then - mostly traded on the daily chart, exit was about 2 - 3 daily bars after that, or if price would move extremely, exit would be on the end of that bar - day......
This still happens all the time, its just testing of high and lows.
But to trade like i describe above, is just to simple and thats why it is not really successfull, maybe it still have a success rate of 30%, i dont know.
you must imagine they traded it without any indicator......
price always, stops a little bit on the highs and lows, bcuz there are the traders take profit or the loosers got stoped out, but it is no guarantee that price must change direction after reached a new high/low....
Something to think about is the "old" trading behaviour that havent changed: traders, put their stops right over High/lows and also take profit, all or partly on the high/lows.
What i ve found in my analiysis is that price sometimes stop right a few points before the next high/low and turns back - dont know if earlier the price moved more often to high/lows than nowadays.
High/Lows are very criticaly price levels, everybody knows that there are the stops and limit orders of the most traders.....
Another old edge what is still working is stop loss hunting, based on that......retesting just made new highs and hit the stops of the idiots who went in to early....
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HATEtheRisk
Registered: Aug 2011
Posts: 1587 |
09-30-11 06:53 AM
Quote from HATEtheRisk:
price always, stops a little bit on the highs and lows, bcuz there are the traders take profit or the loosers got stoped out, but it is no guarantee that price must change direction after reached a new high/low....
Something to think about is the "old" trading behaviour that havent changed: traders, put their stops right over High/lows and also take profit, all or partly on the high/lows.
What i ve found in my analiysis is that price sometimes stop right a few points before the next high/low and turns back - dont know if earlier the price moved more often to high/lows than nowadays.
High/Lows are very criticaly price levels, everybody knows that there are the stops and limit orders of the most traders.....
Another old edge what is still working is stop loss hunting, based on that......retesting just made new highs and hit the stops of the idiots who went in to early....
I also believe that the nowadays markets are much much driven by technical analysis and indicator trading, then it was in th 80s.
You must think about, which trading styles moves the money nowadays, its first the pro technical traders and second the automatic computer programms (especially for very short term - aka high frequency trading - aka scalping).....they still operate on the old high/low support/resistance retesting law....this law will never change....never......markets move in cycles and creates high/lows all the time, therefore it must retest it to refresh the energy or money flow, before it can continue in the strong trade/trend/move directions....thats another unchanging law...thats just how the markets work....
Another unchanging old law or edge is that markets allways move in the same behaviour / pattterns,lets say for at least for 5 years....so you have only to study this behaviour to find out, how the big money players strategies work and therefore how the current markets work........so long there is a market, there are patterns to profit from it....
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HATEtheRisk
Registered: Aug 2011
Posts: 1587 |
09-30-11 07:05 AM
Quote from HATEtheRisk:
........so long there is a market, there are patterns to profit from it....
thats why it will become more difficult and difficult in the future, bcuz everyone looks on technical analysis and indicators, therefore the traders must put much more work and DETAIL in the technical strategies, thats what i see....little divergencies in the technical analysis, have big results...
thats the game, that keeps trading competative.
Its a competition of how smart you are to understand all this shit and be always one step before the other idiots who want your money. The smarter one wins.....
But after all, the old good patters / edges / strategies, who are realy outstanding in the markets, will work forever....
why? bcuz in that kind of better said rare situations, the market cant do anything else than move in the expecated direction....
thats what a pro trader should do....wait for that kind of situation and only trade that, and then put on a realy good risk to make a realy great profit....
Discipline and beeing conservative in strategies will lead to success....
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TraDaToR
Registered: Dec 2006
Posts: 3772 |
09-30-11 08:39 AM
Quote from eusdaiki:
Bullets:
In order to get around the short sell restriction you would buy the long stock + buy the put + sell the call (so you're synthetically flat... but you can "long sell" your long position to go short)
This loophole was closed by a law a few years ago... and made completely useless by the elimination of the tick check thanks to Reg SHO.
Thanks. So you still had to have a long stock position at first... I knew stock traders were avoiding the uptick rule using options but I didn't know it was called "bullets".
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TraDaToR
Registered: Dec 2006
Posts: 3772 |
09-30-11 08:41 AM
Quote from tradingmonkey:
Trading Imbalances-Before everyone knew about them it used to be a very profitable high risk/reward opportunity to trade on imbalance data provided by the exchanges each trading day 20 minutes prior to close. Especially in very high dollar illiquid stocks.
Uquotes- in the months following the implementation of reg nms, large market orders relative to average volume would cause the specialist to go in to U mode to gather shares to fill the market order..if you got there fast enough you could get "wrapped up" in the print and then flip the shares to ecns. Stupidly profitable for a while.
Chasing Offers-While the uptick rule was still in effect, large offers would "chase". you could get short in front of them and ride them down and then buy them up as they were just about to be depleted and ride the stock back up....very high probability set. It went away with the uptick rule.
Opening Indications- Trying to get the specialist's opening print when he was indicating an open far outside where the ecns were trading.
Nice thread. Keep it going.
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Hydroblunt
Registered: Jun 2004
Posts: 3975 |
09-30-11 03:26 PM
Quote from Jestersofmalice:
Was that also called ''shadowing the axe''? (tape-reading the specialist)
I used to know someone who made so much money every single day, and he told me all he did was ''shadow the ax''...''find out who the main instituational player was using the level2 screen and follow him''. No charts. just Level2
Was it a really easy thing to do?
Are you saying that he can no longer employ that method? (i've not spoke with him for years)
Must be so nice to have a true 'edge' (like the example above) rather than punting from charts!
The NYSE specialist used to control the order flow and hence the institutional order flow. If you understood how he traded the stock of the time & sales, you read the tape and aligned yourself with him.
Not easy but not too hard either. Just required pattern recognition, time & practice. There were a few signals that were so obvious that you could teach a monkey to do it.
You were able to do the same with Nasdaq, up to a point, by observing the Market Maker or finding an institutional buyer.
You generally did not need the chart but it was not useless.
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