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Ed Breen

Registered: Jan 2010
Posts: 486

11-09-11 01:01 PM

The market is now broken for all the PIIGS debt. The structure of the last EMU bailout for Greece and the response of Merkel and Sarkozy to the Papandemonium, opening the possibility and challenge that an EMU member could and should exit, was the last straw. The message from Greece was that if you hold any PIIGS debt you need to sell it right away. We saw the Failure of MF Global caused by thier PIIGS debt holding...we saw the run on Jefferies because of thier PIIGS debt holdings. In both cases they sold thier holdings. Look at the EU banks reporting...in each case they are writing down and selling thier PIIGS holdings. The bail out scheme for Greece has not considered the effect that it would have on the market of sovereign debt as a whole and PIIGS debt in particular. Now the market is broken...its all sellers and no buyers until the ECB steps in...but they don't have the legal constitution right to step in directly and they don't have the money or the time to do it any other way.

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Daal

Registered: Oct 2002
Posts: 9019

11-09-11 01:14 PM

Quote from Martinghoul:

No idea... Nobody (that I know of) trades any of this stuff any more. The mkt is broken.

Are u saying there are no trades going on sov CDSs?

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Martinghoul

Registered: Jan 2009
Posts: 5641

11-09-11 01:16 PM

Quote from Daal:
Are u saying there are no trades going on sov CDSs?

Since I try to stay as far away as possible from sov CDS, I am not sure what goes on in that stupid mkt. I am mainly referring to the bond mkt.

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benwm

Registered: Mar 2008
Posts: 1311

11-09-11 02:00 PM

Quote from Martinghoul:

New 1y BOT (Italian t-bill) traded in the grey mkt at 7% this morning, after the LCH shenanigans.

What is the LCH shenanigans please?
(I have not been able to get my eyes away from BTP price action all day so had no time to catch up news stories)

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benwm

Registered: Mar 2008
Posts: 1311

11-09-11 02:02 PM

Was talk of an emergency ECB meeting in last hour.

I think if I was Draghi I would do something drastic like cut to 50bp immediately. Maybe that would turn the PIIGS debt around.

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Martinghoul

Registered: Jan 2009
Posts: 5641

11-09-11 02:07 PM

Quote from benwm:
What is the LCH shenanigans please?
(I have not been able to get my eyes away from BTP price action all day so had no time to catch up news stories)

The raising of the haircuts on Italian repos, which was "pre-announced", strictly unofficially, last night and was finally made public this morning.

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