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m22au

Registered: Mar 2002
Posts: 3138

08-03-11 03:35 PM

"While You Weren't Paying Attention... Brazil Was Blowing Up Too!"

http://www.businessinsider.com/braz...-selloff-2011-8

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m22au

Registered: Mar 2002
Posts: 3138

08-05-11 01:04 PM

This Bloomberg article mainly focuses on some technical analysis, but there is also some fundamental analysis later in the piece

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...p-tumbling.html

"Bovespa Plunge Flashes Warning Sign Brazilian Shares May Continue Tumbling"

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Daal

Registered: Oct 2002
Posts: 9019

08-05-11 01:51 PM

I know real estate where I live is so expensive its ridiculous. Cost of living in general is pretty darn high. If there is a trade here is to short the Real after some kind of catalyst(Some kind of real capital flight), I bet there are a LOT of leveraged positions longing the real, anytime you have a market going up in a straight line for a long-time(specially with a nice positive carry), its going to attract speculators, the type of people who wont be loyal to their positions when shit hits the fan.
I don't like to short stocks because its a very hard game to play

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m22au

Registered: Mar 2002
Posts: 3138

09-01-11 02:20 PM

Quote from Daal:

I know real estate where I live is so expensive its ridiculous. Cost of living in general is pretty darn high. If there is a trade here is to short the Real after some kind of catalyst(Some kind of real capital flight), I bet there are a LOT of leveraged positions longing the real, anytime you have a market going up in a straight line for a long-time(specially with a nice positive carry), its going to attract speculators, the type of people who wont be loyal to their positions when shit hits the fan.
I don't like to short stocks because its a very hard game to play

Maybe this interest cut is the catalyst:

"TEXT-Brazilian central bank statement on interest rates"

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011...E77U1WC20110901

"Brazil Central Bank Unexpectedly Cuts Its Overnight Rate To 12.0% From 12.5% Following Observations Of "Substantial Economic Deterioration"

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/brazi...vations-substan

"Barclays On Brazil Rate Cut: "Unexpected...Unprecedented"

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/barcl...edunprecedented

USD/BRL = 1.6019 at the time of typing. Probably the next big test is the early August risk-off level of about USD/BRL 1.6295

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