TBT being a leveraged ETF is likely has a decent sized position in short bond futures - 10 year. But there is an implied ceiling once rates get near zero, right ? In shorting stocks, there is no ceiling.
The 10 yr is a "note," bonds is referring to the the 30 yr future contract.
I can't believe I started this thread back in July with TBT in the 30's !
Support at 19 looks strong.
The Fed "put" seems to support a long position. TBT was at 21 just 10 days ago.
Well...now some expert (Marion Bartels ?) on Bloomberg indicates a 1.5 percent rate in the ten year is imminent. WOWZER !!! It's all about Europe.
That would put TBT UNDER 17 !!!
One thing that doesn't make sense to me is TLT being so high and the stock market also being at the multi-year highs ~ those 2 things don't go together.
I guess it's money from Europe buying up treasuries cause they're all afraid for the Euro...
If the Europe problems start to straighten out I'd expect TBT to rise as Europe pulls it's money back into Euro bonds ...
But I've been very wrong on TBT for awhile ... I've been considering some new LEAP call spreads for Jan 13/14 -
