Registered: Mar 2009
03-07-12 01:41 PM
Quote from Hombre:
Why did you choose to trade AU/CND ? I would never look at this pair.
All US/ something, so far, for me .
My rationale was based on my belief that the AUD is absurdly overvalued against just about every currency out there, but given EUR and USD monetary policy, the risk was too great either the ECB or the Fed would come out with more easing (I still believe they will). CAD, like AUD, is a commodity currency, but more weighted towards oil. There was no justification for a multi year high in the pair match up.
As oil has been strengthening lately, and the end of the month always tends to be a stronger CAD (due to oil inflows) the timing seemed as good as it would get.
There has been a bounce this morning, but it broke an important trend line and unless something changes significantly, the trend is now down, with the next major trendline down around 1.02. All I have to do is buckle in and hang on.