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falconview
 

Registered: Jun 2010
Posts: 1465

 

04-21-12 04:12 PM

Ha! Ha! Ha! Thanks for the input. Hope it is good coffee?

Yup! The risk bothers me also, thinking about it. Have no idea what would happen if there was a Black Swan 10% market drop, while holding a CALENDAR? Anybody know?

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falconview
 

Registered: Jun 2010
Posts: 1465

 

04-21-12 04:13 PM

Mushin

It was real cash money. First time trying it. I will talk to TOS help on Monday.

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hoop121
 

Registered: Apr 2012
Posts: 135

 

04-21-12 04:20 PM


Quote from falconview:

Ha! Ha! Ha! Thanks for the input. Hope it is good coffee?

Yup! The risk bothers me also, thinking about it. Have no idea what would happen if there was a Black Swan 10% market drop, while holding a CALENDAR? Anybody know?



1. close out at a loss.
2. roll the front month (you'd probably be at 80%+ profit it on it in this type of event) into the next month
3. double down on your long call

never have too much of your cash at risk in case of one of these events. market crashes are incredible buying opportunities.

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falconview
 

Registered: Jun 2010
Posts: 1465

 

04-22-12 02:38 AM

Good answer Hoop 121

I hadn´t quite thought of it that way yet.

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hoop121
 

Registered: Apr 2012
Posts: 135

 

04-22-12 03:51 AM


Quote from falconview:

Good answer Hoop 121

I hadn´t quite thought of it that way yet.




just realized you asked what would happen and not what would you do.

i'd imagine your short call would expire worthless and your long back month call would lose half it's value.

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falconview
 

Registered: Jun 2010
Posts: 1465

 

04-22-12 01:55 PM

I´m enamored of strangles and straddles. I´ve heard from two people who are making money at it. So still seeking the TRADE SECRETS of how to do it.
Far as I can figure, there is the standard way and a second way. The standard way earns about 3% a month net. I´m not finished experimenting with the second way yet. I´m still trying to fix it with bells and whistle, tweeks and stuff. But figure it should return 10% a month. Much of the criticism coming in, apparently is because people are trading front month and second month options in a straddle or strangle. I´ve learned you need to trade 90 day straddles or strangles. I´ll at least pass that on to you. ( GRIN )
The big thing with this type of trade, is there is NO RISK. Very slow conservative, neutral strategy. Takes about two weeks to a month, depending on market movement via lady luck, to work your way of a strangle or straddle.
I´m in a big cash straddle right now, ( for my current account level ) to see how my theory works out in reality. Done some straddles before but the old fashioned way. They work but very slow.

I am also doing a lot of experimental paper trading on many other classical strategies. They do make money. But there is alway some RISK. That is the difference between anything else and the NO RISK straddle/strangle. Other strategies mostly to do with selling premium, have to consider risk and so they trade a smaller portion of their equity account. These make more money, faster, but carry risk. Because of the trade off, between RISK strategies seems to be a balance of trading smaller, it takes longer to increase the equity balance. I´m getting into my theory implications here right now, as empirically I am in the process of doing it and no hard results in hand.

Listening to reports on here, about results for annual RETURN ON INVESTMENT ( ROI ), I hear people claim anywhere from 30% to 300%. Larger returns carry more risk and often blow up, they certainly have drawdowns and losses. The MARKET WIZARD book claim a 40% return ROI for a year, is a top reward ratio to shoot for. One correspondent friend claims a 60% return per year, ROI.

The trade off for a straddle / strangle seems to be NO RISK, vs RISK, but higher reward by anything else. I´m a novice amateur so my thoughts are not necessarily correct here. Take WARNING!
My thinking, not yet backed up by real life, is that a straddle / strangle can return 30% to 100% per year on your equity balance. The trade off balancing act is that with a NO RISK strategy, you can trade ALL your account each time. What we call COMPOUNDING. Whereas those that are claiming 50% or so ROI, have to allow for RISK and trade smaller amounts of their accounts, to cover losses.

I´ll toss those speculative thoughts out for comments. This is at the moment only theoretical thinking and I´m just starting on the process of proving I´m right with REAL MONEY TRADING. The FUTURE KNOWS. I´d love to start with a $200,000 in a NO RISK STRATEGY, because you probably could live off it as income?

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