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cornix
Registered: Jan 2011
Posts: 2781 |
05-19-11 03:25 AM
Quote from NoDoji:
I can confirm that CF can trade, can trade with "impossible" stops, and can trade profitably day after day and seems to have been doing so for at least 3 years, as he's one of the first traders I ever met back in the days of ET's chat room. I had the privilege of having him in my Skype room last year, where I was left shaking my head at his ability to trade Euro futures with a 6-tick stop loss, quite profitably. I learned a lot from him. Once you learn what makes the market tick, as a day trader you will win in a "Spectacular Fashion." You'll just win!
Thank you NoD. I must say, that you are doing extremely well too, often reading your posts I see your understanding of the markets and the trading business is truly stellar...
P. S. People who helped me in my early years and even some of my current partners are fine with 4-5 ticks on Euro most of the time, so I rather suck with my wide stops. 
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stockstalkerv3
Registered: Feb 2011
Posts: 44 |
05-19-11 04:12 AM
Listen up ppl! Day trading is a losing game b/c you're trading the wrong instrument.
Take your common everyday non-blue chip stock that lures in maybe 1-2 investor/trader a day. They got a big problem convicing those interested to chip in if they don't manufature social proof (buying and selling from their various accounts to create the appearance of volume). Could you imagine how their stock would look if there were only 1-2 real trades per day? If they don't create 100 fake trades, nobody's going buy.
So, you the trader pitch in, thinking you'll make a killing. At whatever price you bought, the computer that manufactures fake volume "knows". So, say you buy in at 10.00 and hoping to get out at 10.50. You think that computer's gonna mark the price up, just so you can get out at 10.50? Wrong!
What the computer will do is mark down the price by 10% or more in the hope of squeezing you out and making 10% off of you. After you sell, the computer will then mark the price up 5-10% from where you bought (this would be 10.50-11.00), hoping either you're stupid enough to buy back in thinking the price will go up higher, or some other sucker comes along and takes the shares at 11.00 (that the computer bought from you at 9.00 after the 10% squeeze out).
Then, the cycle of (trader) abuse repeats itself, which is why you'll see random squiggly lines on the daily chart.
But, if it is a sector play that is just about to become hot, the computer will do whatever it takes to squeeze you out, but -- after each squeeze, the price is made to climb higher and higher in sych with the sector.
So, you can see, day trading is definitely a losing game when the ratio of false:real volume is very high. But, if you're trading something like CL, where fakes:real trades are low, the computer loses its edge --- which means that if you're skilled enough, you can beat the computer at games like CL and make money!
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RobertG
Registered: Jan 2010
Posts: 119 |
05-19-11 04:32 AM
"95%" is such dirty statistic. You have those who guess randomly, those who attended a webinar/seminar and jumped in because trading is "cool", those who see ET and try to do do half-A&$, etc.
How many of the 95% truly dedicated themselves to learn, explore and make intelligent mistakes that could be learned from?
How many of the 95% can digest that there is no "income" from the markets..."I just want 2 points" still cracks me up...and the ups and downs of equity that paralyze traders.
My account:
Jan Win
Feb Win
March Loss LARGE
April Loss small
May New Equity High...so far...all because of shorting silver..could be dumb luck.
When I write this I am a bit mad at myself at how I traded before..pissed tons of cash...but this was not trading.
I ask myself if I am a trader and I say...not yet. I am more active but I just went back to making projects with clients because I don't want to be desperate to make money. if I am, the market will eat me alive. A real trader understands it.
If you are a beginner and you can trade 2 months being negative or more and still continue..you could be ok...if not, try underwater basket weaving which is a lot more relaxing.
RG
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dealmaker
Registered: Dec 2006
Posts: 607 |
05-19-11 05:07 AM
Trading is not rocket science, after trading a while we all learn the set-ups, how to read charts, technicals, fundamentals etc.. The difference between a successful trader and a not so successful ( as long as the time has been put in to learn the game ) is the mental approach.
So guys/gals stop complaining you are losing because of you, not because trading is impossible. Trading is not for everyone, its esoteric and still there are many out there making plenty of $.
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Spearhead
Registered: Nov 2007
Posts: 72 |
05-19-11 06:57 AM
Quote from stockstalkerv3:
So, you the trader pitch in, thinking you'll make a killing. At whatever price you bought, the computer that manufactures fake volume "knows". So, say you buy in at 10.00 and hoping to get out at 10.50. You think that computer's gonna mark the price up, just so you can get out at 10.50? Wrong!
What the computer will do is mark down the price by 10% or more in the hope of squeezing you out and making 10% off of you. After you sell, the computer will then mark the price up 5-10% from where you bought (this would be 10.50-11.00), hoping either you're stupid enough to buy back in thinking the price will go up higher, or some other sucker comes along and takes the shares at 11.00 (that the computer bought from you at 9.00 after the 10% squeeze out).
Which is why stops are generally not a good idea and averaging up or down in a losing position is a better way to go.
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Spearhead
Registered: Nov 2007
Posts: 72 |
05-19-11 07:22 AM
I tend to agree with the main points of the OP. Most traders do fail. If anyone got a real peek at performance of individual accounts of retail traders, it would probably discourage people from ever trading. Since this is the case, those numbers are closely guarded and never released to the public. I think research that was done in the past indicated 90% losers, 1-2% consistent and substantial winners, 8-9% winners but not substantial and probably just treading water. If I remember correctly, out of the 90% of losers, roughly 10% were catastrophic losers who basically blow out their entire account.
These aren't encouraging statistics for aspiring traders. Although I consider myself part of the 1-2% consistent winners, whenever anyone asks me about trading as a profession rather than a hobby, I vehemently discourage it. I suppose out of those 1-2%, everyone has their own "secret" for how they're doing it, but I suspect it is not just a matter of time, effort, and psychology. People on this board seem to think you can read some books, pay for training, spend the necessary time, and you will somehow get good enough to profit from the market. I just don't believe this to be true.
The previous poster mentioned something about finding the right arbitrage / market inefficiencies. On the scale of difficulty, I would venture that it's on the order of coming up with a new, undiscovered physics theory. I'd also guess that most people who spend the next 10 years studying the market will still not be profitable daytraders. It might go from 90% failure rate to 70% or so, but I just can't imagine the majority would be profitable.
How many people do you personally know are successful daytraders? I don't know any besides myself, and I know plenty that tried to trade actively and lost enough to not attempt it again.
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