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NoDoji
Registered: May 2008
Posts: 8107 |
04-24-11 12:27 AM
Quote from oraclewizard77:
I would say 70% of trend setups work.
I have found that sometimes taking winning trades is against human nature.
Right out of that popular trading song entitled "Consistent Profitability". 
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wrbtrader
Registered: Feb 2010
Posts: 1298 |
04-24-11 12:40 AM
Quote from oilfxpro:
Thank you for your post.
There were plenty of profitable entries trading trend lines correctly over the last week.There was good 200 to 300 pips to be made on trading only the euro/usd on intra day.
My apologies , as I was not seeing the picture clearly.
Hi,
It seems you're comparing what you see in real-time while under the stress of trading to what you see in "hindsight". Simply, be very careful because "anyone" can see the picture clearly on a hindsight chart after the fact in comparison to what they see in real-time with real money on the line.
The real question is why do you think you were not able to see those key price areas outlined by those trendlines. ???
Next, will you be prepare to trade any trade signals you're using when those trendlines are tested again that's outlined on your chart for future reference. ???
Another question, what's the lifespan of those trendlines considering new ones will appear every trading day. ???
Quote from oilfxpro:
I designed and operate 44 automated day and swing strategies , they worked fine for the period 2001 to 2008.In 2009 to 2011 the systems work , but with much lower returns , due to extremely huge amount of fakes, bad news and much more uncertainty in the markets...
I'll repeat something I said earlier...you already have profitable swing trading strategies that's still making you money...
Why mess around with day trading ???
Your change in profit level, while still profitable, can be due to change in volatility or market context. That's normal. I'll repeat, it's normal and your adjustment should not be trying a new type of trading. Instead, tighten your wallet and personal lifestyle needs until suitable trading conditions return that allows your profit levels go back to where they unless you have a fear that your profit levels will continue declining in your swing trading.
*****
My point is that you have profitable methods and you should be concentrating on improvements in your "trade management after entry" of your existing swing trading strategies instead of messing around with learning a new trading style called day trading.
*****
Last of all, the years you stated had a particular type of volatility that change dramatically in 2008 and is still changing as of now. Thus, I strongly suspect your swing trading methods are very sensitive to key changes in volatility.
Mark
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Jeffrey
Registered: Mar 2001
Posts: 160 |
04-24-11 02:16 AM
Can somebody post a snap shot of that well known chart that shows the emotional roller coaster traders go through when hanging onto a position?
Thanks!
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oraclewizard77
Moderator
Registered: Jan 2006
Posts: 2290 |
04-24-11 03:04 AM
No problem, I was just trying to help out.
Thanks
Quote from oilfxpro:
Thank you for your post.
There were plenty of profitable entries trading trend lines correctly over the last week.There was good 200 to 300 pips to be made on trading only the euro/usd on intra day.
My apologies , as I was not seeing the picture clearly.
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Rabbitone
Registered: Aug 2005
Posts: 734 |
04-24-11 03:30 AM
OilXPro
In June 2004 I went to a trading expo in Chicago (If my memory is correct). After one of the presentations at the expo on trading stocks was complete, a trader next to me stood up to ask this question. “…if markets only trend 20 % of the time, then trends fail 80 % of the time. Right. Then how come it doesn’t show up on charts? If you look at chart of the Dow from 1980 to 2000 I don’t see 4 failed trends…”
For the life of me I can’t remember the presenter. It may have been Larry Williams? But I never forget the answer that was given back to us. So I will try to paraphrase it:
“…Don’t be mad at me when I really tell you what price trend in stocks really means. Because it is not going to fit your definition or the text books definition. To me it is the general direction in which stock price tends to move. But for many this is too simple a definition …”
“…you have stated the 80/20 rule which is tough to use because it gets so twisted by everybody who uses it as an example of trend in the markets. What it originally meant in the first articles written about it was that when a stock price moved in a direction that about 20% or 1 bar in 5 really contributed to the movement in that general direction (the trend). The other 80 percent of the price bars or 4 out of 5 create price noise that cannot be seen as contributing to price moving in that direction…”
“…But in today’s literature this saying as come to mean any number of twisted variations. Things like 4 out of 5 breakout set ups fail to work intraday…Only 1 trend in 5 produces good results and the other 4 are duds. Or that 4 out of 5 bars on a chart are not part of trends… All of these are false and contribute to traders not understanding when a trend is taking place on a chart…”
Take an example say of a chart of the weekly price bars from March 2009 to today for the S & P 500. Try to explain to us the directional price movement for the S & P 500 using your 80/ 20 rule. Can you show us what periods where it trended 20% of the time and what periods where 80% of the trends failed?
Quote from oilfxpro:
if markets only trend 20 % of the time, then trends fail 80 % of the time. 4 out of 5 trends really fail.
Turtle trader was a mentor not just another snake oil vendor ,
all his funds with real money failed
People greater than u failed.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Dennis
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oilfxpro
Registered: Oct 2007
Posts: 1600 |
04-24-11 07:25 AM
Quote from wrbtrader:
Hi,
It seems you're comparing what you see in real-time while under the stress of trading to what you see in "hindsight". Simply, be very careful because "anyone" can see the picture clearly on a hindsight chart after the fact in comparison to what they see in real-time with real money on the line.
Agreed , every thing looks easy in hindsight..I only trade live accounts .
The real question is why do you think you were not able to see those key price areas outlined by those trendlines. ???
I was not following trend lines, but support and resistance and was not pre-prepared to trade trends.I had my own method of trading support and resistance, trends and fundamentals , there was a fault in this method.This method has caught me out trading against the trend.There were too many different conflicting methods /systems to cloud my judgement.I have got rid of all the other methods, and will trade only one method for day trading.I had a lot of personal biases on where the price should go , as opposed to following trend lines.
Next, will you be prepare to trade any trade signals you're using when those trendlines are tested again that's outlined on your chart for future reference. ???
Yes , I decided to trade only the trendline trading method with variations to suit my style.It is going to be difficult trading uncertainty along the trend lines .
Another question, what's the lifespan of those trendlines considering new ones will appear every trading day. ???
A couple of days to 5 days with longer trends.
I'll repeat something I said earlier...you already have profitable swing trading strategies that's still making you money...
Why mess around with day trading ???
The returns are not adequate from swing and automated trading.
It is an obsession to win and master all trading.The more time we spend trading,learning and devising methods , the better we become as traders.Everything is achievable , if you are determined enough.
Your change in profit level, while still profitable, can be due to change in volatility or market context. That's normal. I'll repeat, it's normal and your adjustment should not be trying a new type of trading. Instead, tighten your wallet and personal lifestyle needs until suitable trading conditions return that allows your profit levels go back to where they unless you have a fear that your profit levels will continue declining in your swing trading.
It is frustrating seeing all the fakes triggering false trades , and going through drawdown periods for months for little reward of 22 % a year.
*****
My point is that you have profitable methods and you should be concentrating on improvements in your "trade management after entry" of your existing swing trading strategies instead of messing around with learning a new trading style called day trading.
*****
Agreed , this exercise in day trading helped me see potential improvements to my swing trading.
Last of all, the years you stated had a particular type of volatility that change dramatically in 2008 and is still changing as of now. Thus, I strongly suspect your swing trading methods are very sensitive to key changes in volatility.
They are sensitive to changes in volatility..
Mark
I have answered your questions above .
For day trading , I am now going to trade only trendlines using the 15 min/1 hour and daily charts using the 15 min trendline break method.Nothing else will be traded.This will eliminate the problems I had with day trading.I have been looking at variations of this method for around a year.
Using a robust day trading /swing method ,a trader should be able to consistently average about 500 pips a week on oil, indexes and currencies using a $100k account. It should make about $250k a year, with probably a draw down of no more than $10,000.This is based on 1 lot future contract @$10 per point.
In comparison the automated system currently makes about 22% a year with 10 to 15 % draw down on $100k account.
Here is a similar method to mine.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=163012
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