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Old Apr 17th, 2011, 09:40 AM   #1
oilfxpro
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: london
Posts: 1,600
The market changes from bullish to bearish bias several times a day.It is really difficult to keep changing biases from long to short , several times a day.The mind can remember the previous market bias , and often rejects the change in bias and direction, hoping it is only a ranging market.

Small stops get triggered frequently, and changes in market direction frequently results in losses.Wide stops hurt positive expectancy , although probability of wider stops getting hit is low.


4 out of 5 trend set ups fail on a daily basis on intra day trading , leaving the one set up to make up the losses and a profit.There is too much bad news coming out during day time, sending the prices reversing frequently , to be profitable from trading currencies intra day.Some of the large trends breakout , in the middle of the night when I am asleep.

Should I just trade only when the trend has broken out?Often this leads to catching trends late.What is the solution?Should a day trader trade only in the direction of the longer term trend?

The difficult market conditions with so many fake moves, create psychological problems ,leading to stress and emotional responses and a breakdown in discipline.

I am thinking of changing to swing trading in the direction of longer time frame trend , i.e using daily time frame and wider stops.

Any opinions would be welcome.
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Old Apr 17th, 2011, 09:49 AM   #2
trend2009
 
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Washington DC
Posts: 338
there are always more losers than winners in the market, otherwise, the market would not exist. in that aspect, the market never changes. it only evolves so that more losers contribute to winners.

Quote:
Quote from oilfxpro:

The market changes from bullish to bearish bias several times a day.It is really difficult to keep changing biases from long to short , several times a day.The mind can remember the previous market bias , and often rejects the change in bias and direction, hoping it is only a ranging market.

Small stops get triggered frequently, and changes in market direction frequently results in losses.Wide stops hurt positive expectancy , although probability of wider stops getting hit is low.


4 out of 5 trend set ups fail on a daily basis on intra day trading , leaving the one set up to make up the losses and a profit.There is too much bad news coming out during day time, sending the prices reversing frequently , to be profitable from trading currencies intra day.Some of the large trends breakout , in the middle of the night when I am asleep.

Should I just trade only when the trend has broken out?Often this leads to catching trends late.What is the solution?Should a day trader trade only in the direction of the longer term trend?

The difficult market conditions with so many fake moves, create psychological problems ,leading to stress and emotional responses and a breakdown in discipline.

I am thinking of changing to swing trading in the direction of longer time frame trend , i.e using daily time frame and wider stops.

Any opinions would be welcome.
    Quote
Old Apr 17th, 2011, 09:57 AM   #3
bstay
 
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Singapore
Posts: 474
Quote:
Quote from oilfxpro:
The market changes from bullish to bearish bias several times a day.It is really difficult to keep changing biases from long to short , several times a day.The mind can remember the previous market bias , and often rejects the change in bias and direction, hoping it is only a ranging market.
Small stops get triggered frequently, and changes in market direction frequently results in losses.Wide stops hurt positive expectancy , although probability of wider stops getting hit is low.
4 out of 5 trend set ups fail on a daily basis on intra day trading , leaving the one set up to make up the losses and a profit.There is too much bad news coming out during day time, sending the prices reversing frequently , to be profitable from trading currencies intra day.Some of the large trends breakout , in the middle of the night when I am asleep.
Should I just trade only when the trend has broken out?Often this leads to catching trends late.What is the solution?Should a day trader trade only in the direction of the longer term trend?
The difficult market conditions with so many fake moves, create psychological problems ,leading to stress and emotional responses and a breakdown in discipline.
I am thinking of changing to swing trading in the direction of longer time frame trend , i.e using daily time frame and wider stops.
Any opinions would be welcome.
i assume you are forex trader, have you tried harmonic patterns trading? with the right tools you have entry/exit/stop guidance while trading intraday timeframes.
    Quote
Old Apr 17th, 2011, 10:02 AM   #4
oilfxpro
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: london
Posts: 1,600
Quote:
Quote from trend2009:

there are always more losers than winners in the market, otherwise, the market would not exist. in that aspect, the market never changes. it only evolves so that more losers contribute to winners.
Gee thanks!
    Quote
Old Apr 17th, 2011, 10:09 AM   #5
bstay
 
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Singapore
Posts: 474
Quote:
Quote from oilfxpro:
The market changes from bullish to bearish bias several times a day.It is really difficult to keep changing biases from long to short , several times a day.The mind can remember the previous market bias , and often rejects the change in bias and direction, hoping it is only a ranging market.
there are signs like classic double-top, double-bottom, head-and-shoulders reversal signs that show up even on intraday timeframes. like this NZD/USD example which presented clear top and bottom signatures .....
    Quote
Old Apr 17th, 2011, 10:11 AM   #6
Shagi
 
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 981
Quote:
Quote from oilfxpro:



Any opinions would be welcome.
You seem to have answered yourself. There in your text my friend is why day trading is the most difficult way to make money and easiest way to lose money and it matters not even if its fully automated. I'm not saying it can't be done but it is my experience that day trading is generally a waste of time.
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