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Ghost of Cutten
Registered: Aug 2009
Posts: 2625 |
05-31-12 12:23 AM
Quote from dhpar:
don't worry - i will. compared to you i (rarely) post some real trading and not just the worthless babble.
i have half position outright at 110.70 in September so I am down whopping 3 bps as of now. the other half was in a 2x30 flattener which today more than offset the loss on outright - the long buxl leg is now closed so i am only short outright in schatz - to make it simple my break-even is around zero yield now, i.e. about 110.80 on September...
i guess i will need some luck but as of now i believe in the trade.
p.s. what nonsense are you spewing out about euroswiss? what's the relevance?
When you have to ask other people for reassurance about your position, it's usually a sign you should exit. Someone with conviction would not need reassurance on the trade. This is not just my opinion, it's the view of many experienced traders who've made a lot more money than any of us. if you get defensive when people tell you this, it's an even more reliable signal to get out. You're clearly emotional about the trade so my advice is exit at the market asap.
You brought up 'value', but value never matters in a market squeeze or panic - if it did, there would never occur extreme valuation distortions. So, value is not a reason to do the trade, you also need to be highly confident that you won't get seriously squeezed. You lack that confidence, as shown by your post here, therefore if the market starts going parabolic (quite common in panics) then you will get squeezed out, probably near the end of the move.
That's the rationale behind my post. It's silly to get angry when a stranger tries to save you losing lots of money.
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dhpar
Registered: Nov 2006
Posts: 1732 |
05-31-12 12:33 AM
Quote from Ghost of Cutten:
When you have to ask other people for reassurance about your position, it's usually a sign you should exit. Someone with conviction would not need reassurance on the trade. This is not just my opinion, it's the view of many experienced traders who've made a lot more money than any of us. if you get defensive when people tell you this, it's an even more reliable signal to get out. You're clearly emotional about the trade so my advice is exit at the market asap.
You brought up 'value', but value never matters in a market squeeze or panic - if it did, there would never occur extreme valuation distortions. So, value is not a reason to do the trade, you also need to be highly confident that you won't get seriously squeezed. You lack that confidence, as shown by your post here, therefore if the market starts going parabolic (quite common in panics) then you will get squeezed out, probably near the end of the move.
That's the rationale behind my post. It's silly to get angry when a stranger tries to save you losing lots of money.
thank you for your psychological analysis; and for your effort to save me from myself; and for not answering the only relevant question.
jeez. you must be busy indeed. don't worry, i am not angry with you - i just ignore your jerking off. 
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benwm
Registered: Mar 2008
Posts: 1309 |
05-31-12 12:56 PM
Quote from dhpar:
thank you for your psychological analysis; and for your effort to save me from myself; and for not answering the only relevant question.
jeez. you must be busy indeed. don't worry, i am not angry with you - i just ignore your jerking off.
I think your reaction to Ghost of Cutten's post is telling.
But to answer your question, the fact Schatz yields got to 0% already is significant...imagine all those RV hedge funds thinking the same as you that 0% will be a floor. And then when you stick a minus sign on the yield they start crapping it and run for the exit. IMO it is now only a matter of time before yields go negative.
Swiss 2yr bonds are already -0.20% and if they introduce capital controls like they did in the 1970s such as taxing non residents deposits upto 10% of capital (not interest) per quarter you'll have to take a lot of heat to ride it out.. More negative Swiss yields will put pressure on German yields to go negative.
Good luck but I think you're pissing in the wind here.
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