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Old Mar 21st, 2012, 08:49 PM   #3229
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: chicago
Posts: 20,355
debt pushed out to 2015 then 2018... lift carpet..sweep
Old Mar 21st, 2012, 10:13 PM   #3230
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: chicago
Posts: 20,355
the bridge companies of the SIFI's in the previous article,could be the future dark pool banks of the investment and wealth management sections in this article with separate rules applying,opposed to having them mixed with retail,the public, if the public's personal account is not directly affected ,the public need not know of any business happening there,if the voter is not affected, no reason for DC to understand or worry about it... ...the unwinding of the debt problem seems more like expansion of liberties among the banking elite's complicated money destruction,or debt expansion
Old Mar 21st, 2012, 10:39 PM   #3231
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Pennsylvania
Posts: 2,278
Horrid PMI number out of China. Under normal conditions it's just a number, but given the stretched conditions of risk markets, we could easily see ES -1% come dawn on the east coast.
Old Mar 22nd, 2012, 01:01 AM   #3232
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 1,155
Quote from ralph00:

Paulo Santos today on He's been a pretty vocal bear for awhile ...
Do you find this sort of information to be useful in making your trade decisions?

I always have trouble getting into the minutae of individual companies' business models, passing judgments on corporate strategy etc. as opposed to broader questions of particular sectors or 'themes.' I'm a trader/investor, not an MBA, marketing guru or logistics expert. Plenty of big money types out there who do employ experts in such fields and their conclusions show up on the chart. But maybe I'm missing something...
Old Mar 22nd, 2012, 01:48 AM   #3233
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 1,155
Tracking a possible pairs trade between GDX (gold miners ETF) and GLD.

GDX has been in a bull-flag-looking formation for the better part of the year and sentiment is now at a bearish extreme (-15 for the Hulbert newsletter index HGNSI). The GLD:GDX ratio is now 3.22 (GLD is 3.22 times GDX) whereas 2009, 2010 and the first quarter of 2011 it held between 2.2 and 2.6. The ratio is now the highest since December 2008.

If the ratio dips back below 3 I would look for it to return to about 2.4. This could be played by either going long GDX outright or a combo of short GLD-long GDX. Trading it as a pair has the advantage that it isn't simply adding to my already substantial net long gold exposure. On the other hand, past performance shows that when gold declines (as in 2008 or since last fall) the ratio has increased rather than decreased, and even if you remove the 2008-09 craziness it's been creeping up steadily for at least six years. Supporting two positions also cuts the possible returns on deployed capital.

So, it might be better to look for a long on GDX only and put aside the correlation risk. Based on GDX chart a return of around 20% in 2-3 months seems a reasonable expectation. It would be temporarily taking more risk in gold for a (hopefully) quick boost to returns.
Old Mar 22nd, 2012, 02:01 AM   #3234
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 1,155
Quote from Daal:

A potential good short is CRM

Trades at 9 times sales, 13 book, has no earnings. Almost 200 times EBITDA
But the edge lies on when to take the short and good exiting techniques, which is not an easy game to play
Yeah that one looks tough, you can see how it just got done utterly demolishing all the shorts with a 50% rally in 2.5 months - despite the fact that the fundamentals presumably haven't changed much in that time.

I would check back in 3-6 months and see if the price seems to have found a ceiling.
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