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Martinghoul
Registered: Jan 2009
Posts: 5641 |
03-10-12 01:03 PM
Quote from Daal:
My point was that people ripped ISDA for what they did but it actually helped the people who bought CDS
Well, people had all sorts of random reactions to the first ISDA ruling. Some of the stuff written on the subject was downright silly. In the end, I don't think that there was anything particularly unreasonable about the process.
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ralph00
Registered: May 2004
Posts: 2275 |
03-10-12 01:57 PM
Quote from jj90:
Re: Greece picks.
Gonna do the research this weekend on Greece, but anyone have any opinions on the other PIIGS nations? Could be some better relative value there, especially Italy that haven't been discussed yet.
Like Greece, it really takes intense research of individual names for Italy. I'm assuming most of the stock index is made up of crappy old companies - imagine an S&P 500 made up of nothing but shitty banks, stodgy (state-run) utilities, GM, a couple of half-assed retailers, and a few (more or less) state-run oil companies and oil services firms. I'm sure there are couple of jewels in there, but the dynamic, fast-growing, profitable companies remain private.
Overall, Italy is as corrupt and backward as Greece (1/3 of business takes place off the books?). If you take northern Italy out of the equation, it's probably worse than Greece.
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Debaser82
Registered: Aug 2008
Posts: 3477 |
03-10-12 04:48 PM
Quote from ralph00:
. If you take northern Italy out of the equation, it's probably worse than Greece.
A bit like the US without New York...
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Specterx
Registered: Dec 2007
Posts: 1126 |
03-10-12 06:28 PM
More on the "cheap money causing bubbles in the Eurozone core" theme:
http://www.thebubblebubble.com/european-housing-bubble/
Some of these charts are quite shocking - Austrian home prices for instance are up 60% since 2005, didn't skip a beat in 08-09. The chance of these trends reversing anytime soon appears to be nil; interest rates will be in the basement for the foreseeable future, politicians are screaming for banks to lend more, and if anything a re-ignition of the crisis will just cause even more money to flood the 'core'.
So long as governments refuse to write off bad debt and abolish the practices which lead to its accumulation, the stock will just keep piling up.
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Debaser82
Registered: Aug 2008
Posts: 3477 |
03-10-12 06:51 PM
Quote from Specterx:
More on the "cheap money causing bubbles in the Eurozone core" theme:
http://www.thebubblebubble.com/european-housing-bubble/
Some of these charts are quite shocking - Austrian home prices for instance are up 60% since 2005, didn't skip a beat in 08-09. The chance of these trends reversing anytime soon appears to be nil; interest rates will be in the basement for the foreseeable future, politicians are screaming for banks to lend more, and if anything a re-ignition of the crisis will just cause even more money to flood the 'core'.
So long as governments refuse to write off bad debt and abolish the practices which lead to its accumulation, the stock will just keep piling up.
This time it's different!
Some remarks:
In most of Europe if you loan for a house you and your assets are on the hook regardless the value of the property. You can't just send the keys back and be gone. Obviously this provides support to the housing market. Defaulting on your mortgage is very much the very last option truely. I believe in the US this was not the case (it is today?).
The Ireland, Spain, US housing crash was to some extend due to stupid locations (in the desert next to some fake golf courts and often the quality was questionable (Wood, prefab, ...)...
The Northern European housing market has less of that, housing is scarce, numbers growing, so that also provides some support.
Also, a relative amount of Northen European baby boomers did quite well, invested less in the volatile stockmarket then their American peers and are supporting their offspring today buying a property.
But ofcourse, besides those the boom in prices these last decades and years has been quite big and one would have to be a fool to think a razorsharp correction could not occur. or not. Some people thought 1K gold was excessive too.
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Butterball
Registered: Dec 2006
Posts: 458 |
03-11-12 12:20 PM
Quote from Ghost of Cutten:
due to huge outperformance by the foreign stock portion as the local currency gets hit.
Take the MSCI World total return, indexed in USD and adjust it for inflation for 1970-1980 and you'll weep.
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