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Old Mar 15th, 2011, 10:46 AM   #85
ralph00
 
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Pennsylvania
Posts: 2,278
Unloaded a chunk of my FCX puts this morning near the open. I forget what I bought them at and I'm trying not to look at my account page (gets me too excited), but I think they're a 3 bagger.

Also unloaded some of my XLY, EWH, and EWT puts. Doubles in the EWH and EWT, XLY a much smaller gain. Pretty remarkable how XLY holds up in the face of lots of bullets. Pretty much an unbreakable index, it seems. If XLY ever goes, the market is a lot weaker than I think.

Holding onto NFLX put lottery tickets. NFLX is actually way up this morning on GS's desperation upgrade.
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Old Mar 15th, 2011, 02:16 PM   #86
Daal
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Brazil
Posts: 9,144
"The recent increases in the prices of energy and other commodities are currently putting upward pressure on inflation. The Committee expects these effects to be transitory, but it will pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations"

Note the Fed doesn't mention growth, the commodity spike in my view and most on the Fed's view, makes monetary policy become tighter than otherwise. All the QE3 talk as a result of a oil spike is nonsense, unless Japan's economy sends the world into a recession
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Old Mar 16th, 2011, 04:11 AM   #87
Daal
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Brazil
Posts: 9,144
Here's what is dangerous about the Japanese situation
according to a WSJ graph, there are 6 nuclear plants units all next to each other, so if one of them blows up the radiation levels will be so high that perhaps work on the other units will not be able to be done(I'm not sure this is correct, its a speculation, the engineers might have the equipment to work in really awful conditions).

If that is the case the probability of a problem there instead of being independent(like 5-10% of a meltdown in each unit) are actually additive(with each meltdown, a prob of a meltdown in other unit increases)
If the meltdown occurs people will fee Tokyo by the droves(And this is a speculation in psychology I'm more comfortable making), regardless of where the wind is blowing. This could tip Japan over into a depression(-10% of GDP) as the disruptions in finance, trade and electricity prove too great for them to bear

If you want to beat the markets you will need special information that most don't understand or have(that is public), in this case I would like to know if the engineers can try to repair the units if there was a meltdown in the area
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Old Mar 16th, 2011, 04:56 AM   #88
Daal
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Brazil
Posts: 9,144
In other words, either everything is going to be ok(they control the units) or things will get really bad(a few units meltdown). If that speculation is true, a middle scenario doesn't seem likely
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Old Mar 16th, 2011, 05:47 AM   #89
Daal
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Brazil
Posts: 9,144
2008 commodity spike might not have had an speculative component after all
http://www.businessinsider.com/proof...mentals-2011-3
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Old Mar 16th, 2011, 08:23 AM   #90
Daal
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Brazil
Posts: 9,144
Whitney Tilson Explains LECG Position (XPRT)
http://www.marketfolly.com/2011/03/w...-position.html

I like very much Tilson's explanation for his loss here. I never read this kind of letter/thinking from other hedge fund managers
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