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Old Mar 14th, 2011, 07:20 AM   #79
Daal
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Brazil
Posts: 9,144
Hussman
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc110314.htm

Says stocks and some commodities are in some kind of bubble. I'm currently defensive on both assets, hold very little of each(except gold and silver which are part of my FX hedge basket)
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Old Mar 14th, 2011, 07:46 AM   #80
emg
 
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 5,931
Quote:
Quote from Daal:

Hussman
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc110314.htm

Says stocks and some commodities are in some kind of bubble. I'm currently defensive on both assets, hold very little of each(except gold and silver which are part of my FX hedge basket)
There is no bubble in some commodites. The reason why commodiies are going up because Qe2.

In other word, looks like we have a Qe bubble
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Old Mar 15th, 2011, 06:21 AM   #81
Butterball
 
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Medellin, Columbia
Posts: 513
Dec '11 EURIBOR has now fully retraced the rate scare. I am sure monsieur Trichet is not amused.
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Old Mar 15th, 2011, 07:54 AM   #82
Daal
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Brazil
Posts: 9,144
Fed futures have been up strongly as a result of the Japanese disaster(It appears that 'minute' levels of radition were found in Tokyo and that is spooking the crap out of people)

I'm seriously considering cutting back even more and there is little upside left(specially when you adjust for the probability of a correction and the opportunity to buy back in cheaper)

I'm also might bring back today the strategy I used a bit last year, shorting puts on VIX spikes. I will choose puts from high quality stocks that a slightly overpriced. Of course the position sizing is extremely conservative and at no point the puts(which have the downside capped because stocks can't become negative) will significantly affect my networth(Of course, I'm sure some people will still mention this or that trader blew up and you should never short puts, they might want to take a look at the insurance industry as evidence against their case)
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Old Mar 15th, 2011, 07:56 AM   #83
Daal
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Brazil
Posts: 9,144
Point is:
GEICO makes a living picking nickels in front of a steamroller. Its a matter of being a good and fast nickel picker and not get greedy
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Old Mar 15th, 2011, 09:33 AM   #84
Daal
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Brazil
Posts: 9,144
Sold some fed futures, I hold now 27% of my original position. I might buy back the 2012 ones if they drop from here
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