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Old Mar 10th, 2011, 05:32 PM   #67
Daal
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Brazil
Posts: 9,144
Quote:
Quote from Specterx:


The important thing to realize about the Fed's actions is that simply pumping banks' excess reserves is very unlikely to cause inflation, because the printed cash is not entering the real economy, and in practice the presence or absence of excess reserves does not affect whether banks can make loans (this is affected purely by interest rates, set by the Fed). As long as QE just produces a massive pile of excess reserves, there is not going to be inflation and the "inflation trade" is just a run-of-the-mill speculative bubble, rather than a symptom of enduring dollar debasement. If credit starts expanding again then we can start worrying about currency debasement.

I disagree with you my friend, I explained this in depth in my previous journal. Just look at the numbers from QE1, $1.75T(IIRC) of assets bought, $1T in excess reserves by the end of it, this means $750B went out to 'circulate' in the economy, probably in the form of M2.
I dont have the numbers from QE2 yet but I wouldn't be surprised if it was similar given how healthy M2 growth has been. If someone has the numbers I would love to see
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Old Mar 10th, 2011, 05:37 PM   #68
emg
 
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 5,933
Quote:
Quote from Daal:

In this journal I will write about my experiences making a living through global macro trading. I have been actively trading this style since late 2006. My returns have been as follows(These the type of returns that I consider the only ones worth talking about, that is returns 'on networth including primary residence')
2007 -9%
2008 +30%
2009 +20%
2010 +22%
2011 +7% YTD

They were made in highly liquid tradeable instruments, so this is scalable to the range of billions. I don't only trade this style(I have some shorter term strategies as well) nor its my only source of income but since 2008 it has been my main source of gains

Is that live or sim?
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Old Mar 10th, 2011, 05:42 PM   #69
Daal
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Brazil
Posts: 9,144
Gross still has plenty of USTs but they have maturities of 12 months or less which seem to be classified as 'cash' by accounting rules
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=3000009781&play=1
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Old Mar 10th, 2011, 10:20 PM   #70
jj90
 
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 498
Whether it is an asset bubble or the inflation specter makes no difference, trade what the market is doing. Both lead to higher prices, I don't see what the problem is unless you're short.
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Old Mar 11th, 2011, 09:13 AM   #71
Daal
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Brazil
Posts: 9,144
EFF has been trading at 14bps for a few days
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/om...dfundsdata.cfm

It seems it will go even lower than this
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Old Mar 11th, 2011, 11:05 AM   #72
CH1973
 
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Brazil
Posts: 16
Quote:
Quote from Daal:

Gross still has plenty of USTs but they have maturities of 12 months or less which seem to be classified as 'cash' by accounting rules
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=3000009781&play=1
I have the feeling this is a contrarian indicator for TSYs

CH1973
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