Registered: Oct 2002
02-25-11 01:37 PM
In this journal I will write about my experiences making a living through global macro trading. I have been actively trading this style since late 2006. My returns have been as follows(These the type of returns that I consider the only ones worth talking about, that is returns 'on networth including primary residence')
2011 +7% YTD
They were made in highly liquid tradeable instruments, so this is scalable to the range of billions. I don't only trade this style(I have some shorter term strategies as well) nor its my only source of income but since 2008 it has been my main source of gains
By 'global macro trading' what do you mean?
I mean studying macro economic trends in order to create tradable ideas and extract returns from financial markets. Think shorting stocks when you predict a recession and things of that kind. Some might call it 'fundamental analysis'
What about technical analysis?
It depends how you define it but I'm not a big fan of chart patterns and indicators, it never made me any money. I do pay attention to statistical analysis and things like that. Most market tops in US stocks occur when the market as a whole(breath) is not making new highs while an index might, if you call this technical analysis(I dont) then yes I follow this but the classical TA of buying patterns and using stochastics I dont believe at all
What is your goal?
For the journal to have the discipline of having to write constantly why I'm in such and such trade, I believe that helps tremendously, my previous journal, helped me ton because you face opposite views and you need to have good arguments otherwise you will note its a weak trade. As you write about a trade you start to note things you didn't previously
For my account, is to return '10% to 40% a year on my networth including primary residence'
Eventually I plan to get in the fund management business and open either a Brazilian 'multimercado' fund or a global macro fund located in a tax haven. I dont feel ready yet to get into fund management
Whats the advantage of doing global macro?
Scalability, if you can do this properly, you can make big money whether you have $10K or $10B
Who are you and whats you background?
I'm a brazilian, living in Sao Paulo. I did a technical high school on IT(computer programming, databases,etc) then I got into online poker playing and casino online(taking advantage of deposit bonuses), which built a stake which I now trade. I never went to college(By choice) but after many years I decided to get in one just to have a degree this year. I study Financial Management(A combo of economics, accounting, business administration, marketing and other stuff)
What are your macro bets for 2011?
Currently I'm long Dec 2011 Fed Funds Futures(Betting the Fed wont raise rates), short the EUR plus I have a part of my networth(about 15%) in gold and silver. Plus a few other small bets but they are not significant. I believe risk assets are overvalued currently
What about longer term views?
I believe commodities are in a bull market(though I'm cautious near term). I'm currently studying an different way to profit from this that does not involve ETFs nor buying seats at exchanges(nor is it a farm). I will write about it when I finish studying this
I invite any student of economics, macro trading, investing and swing/position trading to participate on the journal and agree/disagree with any views exposed here